While many eyes will be on the presidential election between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and three-time Republican nominee Donald Trump, congressional elections in the House and Senate will help determine America's political landscape through 2028.
The Democrats have taken control of the Senate in the parliamentary session that is about to end, with forty-seven members and four independents voting with them. In addition, Harris as vice president broke a tie for votes in the Senate more than 30 times.
There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs on Tuesday. Of those seats, 11 are currently held by Republicans, 21 by Democrats and two by independents — Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Angus King of Maine — who form a caucus with the Democrats. There will be at least nine new people in the Senate, as that is the number of races with vacant seats.
Voters in seven swing states will determine the outcome of the US presidential election in November. Andrew Chang breaks down each state Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are playing for and their paths to 270 electoral college votes.
With so many seats up for grabs, Democrats appear to have a tough hill to climb to retain the Senate. Election simulations run by thirty-eight have them losing the Senate 89 out of 100 times, with the Economist/YouGov models giving Democrats a 30 percent chance of winning.
The odds reflect, in part, the fact that Democrats are certain to lose the West Virginia seat vacated by Joe Manchin. Republican Gov. Jim Justice leads the race, according to any state poll conducted, which is not competitive.
If the Republicans win the Senate, the gavel will pass to the Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of the Democrats – but it will not be given to the former majority leader Mitch McConnell. The Kentucky Republican, 82, has announced that he will not seek the leadership again.
In addition to legislative and oversight functions, the Senate votes to confirm federal court judges, Supreme Court justices and a number of US cabinet and government positions that require confirmation.
Here are the candidates in some of the key races.
In Michigan
The Michigan seat is up for grabs as Democrat Debbie Stabenow has opted not to run for a fifth term. Elissa Slotkin won the Democratic primary, defeating actor Hill Harper. Slotkin is a former CIA analyst and held a Department of Defense position in the Barack Obama administration before running for and winning a seat in the US House in 2018.
Republican Mike Rogers is a known figure in the state. The former FBI agent served in the Michigan Legislature in the 1990s and won multiple elections in Michigan's 8th district from 2001, before leaving politics in 2015. Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.
Montana
Democrats are worried about the prospects of Jon Tester, who won three close Senate races in a state that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential races. The farmer and former school music teacher served in the Montana Legislature before running to DC in 2007, where he occasionally clashed with his party, such as his support for the Keystone XL pipeline.
Tim Sheehy is one of the wealthiest Republicans seeking to enter the Senate this year. He is a former US Navy Seal who founded an aerospace company that proved hugely profitable. While he received a Purple Heart for an incident in Afghanistan, he faced suspicions of stolen valor in another mysterious incident where he sustained a gunshot wound.
Nebraska
This race could be a wildcard, as Dan Osborn is running as an independent and has been tight-lipped about whether he will join the Democrats or Republicans. A US military veteran criticized the Senate as a “national body of millionaires working for billionaires.” He is an industrial mechanic who gained national recognition three years ago when he successfully led a strike at Kellogg's grain plants.
Deb Fischer is a lifelong Nebraska native who has served on the school board for over a decade, spent time in the state legislature and since 2012 has been a member of the US Congress. He gave Trump good marks in his first term for his strong support for national security and national defense, and for his strong federal judicial appointments.
Nevada
Republican Sam Brown is a retired Army captain who suffered severe burns while on duty in Afghanistan in 2008, caused by an improvised explosive device. He has limited experience outside of military service, an unsuccessful run for state in Texas, where he used to live, and a 2022 campaign for the US Senate in Nevada.
Jacky Rosen was a first-term congressman from the Las Vegas area when he defeated Sen. Republican Dean Heller in 2018. She is connected to her humble background, which includes attending community college, working as a casino waitress in Las Vegas and working as a waitress. president of the famous Jewish synagogue in Henderson, Nev.
In Ohio
Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown's bid for a fourth term makes it his toughest yet, with the race poised to be the most expensive Senate race of the cycle. Campaigns, groups and outside groups have spent more than $400 million US on ads, according to campaign tracking firm AdImpact. Brown previously spent 14 years as a member of the US House, and twenty years in state politics.
Bernie Moreno was born in Bogota, Colombia, and belongs to an influential business and political family in Latin America. He lived in Ohio for 20 years, building his fortune as a luxury car dealer and blockchain entrepreneur before expressing an interest in national politics, running for the seat eventually won in 2022 by Sen. JD Vance.
in Pennsylvania
Bob Casey, the son of a former Pennsylvania governor, served as state treasurer and auditor general before being elected to the US Senate. The moderate Democrat is a close friend of labor unions and the current administration, and is seeking a fourth term in office after winning three Senate elections.
David McCormick is a Gulf War veteran who left the state for and graduated from the West Point military academy. He later earned a doctorate from Princeton, then served in a senior US Treasury position in the George W. Bush administration. After that, he became the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds.
Texas
Calgary-born Ted Cruz, who is seeking a third term, clashed with Trump when both ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, but became more loyal when Trump was in the Oval Office. While Cruz angered many Texans by holding his trip during the worst hurricane season in 2021, the Harvard-educated lawyer is a powerful voice in the Senate's legislative and foreign relations committees.
Democrats couldn't beat Cruz in 2018 with popular Beto O'Rourke. The hope of the team this year is Colin Allred, who spent four seasons as a quarterback with the Tennessee Titans in the NFL, received his law degree from the University of California-Berkeley after retiring from football and since 2018 has served in the House, where he has sometimes criticized the administration's border policies of Biden.
In Wisconsin
Democrat Tammy Baldwin, after several years in the state legislature, became the first openly gay woman elected to the US Congress in 1998, beginning a 15-year run as a House representative. Since 2013, he has served as one of two state senators.
Republican Eric Hovde jumped into a frigid Lake Mendota earlier this year to prove his loyalty to Wisconsin. He was born and raised in the state but most recently served as CEO of California-based H Bancorp and its subsidiary, Sunwest Bank.
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