TThe Philippines is known for its month-long Christmas celebrations starting in September. The predominantly Catholic country of nearly 120 million people is serious about this holiday season. However, this time of year has recently taken on a sad tone for many Filipino families.
Estrella Pagargan decorated her home with recycled bamboo and a plastic bottle parols during the holidays, but in early November, the house where she, her husband, and her three children have lived for years was destroyed overnight. Typhoon Yinxing, locally known as Marce, passed through the northern part of the Southeast Asian country and wreaked havoc in the province of Pagarigan, Cagayan. Their house—which had withstood previous natural disasters—was among more than a thousand destroyed in the district.
“It was extraordinary,” Pagarigan tells TIME of the Category 4 storm. Christmas certainly won't be so sweet, he said.
Such storms, called super typhoons, are becoming more common in the Philippines, fueled by climate change. The country experiences an average of 20 tropical storms a year, according to the National Weather Service. It is part of the Pacific Typhoon Belt, and has an active typhoon season that usually runs from July to October, when 70% of the year's typhoons occur. But increasingly, the holiday season – which is often associated with drying temperatures – sees strong storms, such as in 2021, when Super Typhoon Rai (category 5) arrived in early December and caused almost $ 1 billion in damage.
2024 has been endless: in less than a month between October and November, six tropical storms-including Marce-entered the country, affecting millions throughout the archipelago and causing more than 350 million in infrastructure and agricultural damage. In the wake of the attack, the Office of the President urged civil servants to avoid lavish holiday gatherings, “use restraint in their celebrations,” and encouraged donations to the victims. “This call is in solidarity with the millions of people in our country who continue to mourn the loss of their lives, homes, and livelihoods during the six typhoons that have hit us in less than a month,” said Chief Secretary Lucas Bersamin in a statement. The Ministry of Education has urged schools to reduce Christmas parties.
Meteorologists in this country have expressed concern about the increase in what some call “Christmas storms.” According to a 2021 study by Joseph Basconcillo and Il-Ju Moon, the frequency of typhoons in the Philippines during the less active period—December to February—increased by 210%, between 2012 and 2020. Basconcillo tells TIME that as the analysis has expanded. by 2022, that number will rise to 240%. He says: “There is a false sense of security that comes with a dysfunctional period. “Because tropical storms are rare, and of course, the wind of celebration.”
The recent increase in Christmas storms is not entirely due to human-caused climate change. Instead, Basconcillo's paper and Moon link it to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—which, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is “a long-term El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate change,” like a tropical seesaw. and cool phases that alternate about every 20 to 30 years.
Gerry Bagtasa, a meteorologist and professor at the University of the Philippines, who has also studied this phenomenon, says that Christmas storms in this country will probably increase, but not forever. “There is an upward trend that starts in 15-20 years [ago]but this may not continue for decades to come,” Bagtasa emailed TIME. Basconcillo says the biggest takeaway should be that better preparedness is needed in the Philippines for typhoons no matter when they happen.
For 31-year-old Paolo Mari—who lives near the Marikina River, an area in the nation's capital that is prone to flooding every time bad weather strikes and often escapes—the sense of caution has apparently made the local vacation dull. Enthusiasm: “We just prepare the food. But making decorations and Christmas trees—we don't put anything up anymore,” he said. “It's rare in houses here. …It doesn't work in the area, because of the floods and so on.”
However, others see the spirit of Christmas persevere in the resilience of communities affected by typhoons. In the province of Albay about 185 mi. southeast of the capital Manila, local disaster mitigation and management officer Ian James Secillano tells TIME that in the hard-hit community of Libon (pop. 84,000) many have chosen to continue their holiday cheer despite the disaster. They simply shifted the focus from the lavish party and decorated displays to the activities of helping and connecting with people. He says: “The atmosphere is still the same, but there will be changes in the way services are run.”
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