California is cracking down on illegal weed, but is it selling on the black market?

The state's two main anti-illegal marijuana programs recently released news reports recommending the seizure of all types of illegal weed worth $544 million.

But when it comes to strengthening California's black market, experts say it's just a drop in the bucket.

Those in the grip of illegal pot, like Mendocino County Sheriff Matthew Kendall, can't help but roll their eyes.

“Don't get me wrong, I love when those guys are [state law enforcement officers] I came to help,” he said, “but I would need 50 police officers for 50 days to even begin to put a stamp on it.”

So far this year, an estimated $353 million in illegal plants have been seized through the California Department of Justice program, and a task force with the sheriff's office has seized approximately $191 million.

Despite these alarming statistics, some law enforcement leaders say the raids do little to stop the black market — which, according to research by Beau Whitney, founder of the cannabis research firm Whitney Economics, accounts for more than half of the state's marijuana sales.

“When we look at the statistics, it's clear that these operations do not contribute to the illegal market,” said Siskiyou County Sheriff Jeremiah LaRue.

For example, the Department of Justice's Enforcement and Interdiction of Illegal Marijuana Program, or EPIC, seized approximately 77,000 marijuana plants in 36 states this year. However, Siskiyou County alone produces an estimated 12 to 16 million illegal plants per year. Therefore, if EPIC focused only on Siskiyou for a year, it would eliminate only 6% of the local black market, he said.

A member of the Siskiyou County sheriff's team drags marijuana plants from a greenhouse to be buried during a raid in Mount Shasta Vista.

(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

This sentiment was echoed by Kendall, who noted that in Mendocino County's 35 square miles of Round Valley alone there are an estimated one million illegal marijuana plants.

“Black markets are as big and bad as ever,” he said.

The Riverside County Sheriff's marijuana enforcement team told The Times that there is still more work to be done to deal with the county's black market, which has not been small in the past two years.

In 2022, a Times investigation found that California's huge illegal marijuana market is pushing legal growers into bankruptcy, fueling social violence, causing massive environmental damage and forcing workers to toil in poor and often dangerous conditions.

Since then, many law enforcement leaders say they believe the state has done little to address the problems fueling the black market — heavy taxes and regulations for legal producers, few consequences for illegal users and limited access to legal marijuana in many California areas.

“It's like [state leaders] they came to our districts, sprinkled everything with gasoline and set it on fire,” said Kendall. “Then they started talking about EPIC doing this job that looks like a garden hose.”

Gov. Spokesman Gavin Newsom referred questions about concerns raised by local law enforcement leaders to the state's Department of Cannabis Control, which did not respond to a request for comment.

California legalized weed with Proposition 64, a 2016 ballot measure that promised to “tax the growth and sale of marijuana in a manner that discourages the illegal market.” Eight years later, the illegal market continues to thrive.

“California has done a terrible job of promoting [illegal] farmers to evolve,” said Whitney, a cannabis economist. “They were taxing themselves heavily, controlling themselves too much, they couldn't make money.”

California levies a 15% sales tax on marijuana sales on top of additional local taxes. A recent study by cannabis industry research and analysis firm GreenWave Advisors found that legal weed companies owe the state more than $730 million in back taxes, 72% of which are owed to companies that have gone out of business.

Johnny Casali, center, and colleague Rose Moberly talk with state inspectors who are controlling marijuana at Casali's Garberville farm in 2022. Casali and other farmers face stiff taxes and heavy regulations.

(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

Another challenge is that more than half of California's counties do not allow the sale of marijuana, limiting access to legal weed in many parts of the state and driving demand on the black market.

There are also huge incentives for sellers to enter the illegal market – they can avoid taxes and licensing fees, while knowing that the fines for selling or transporting marijuana without the necessary licenses are just plain bad.

“From a criminal point of view, there is little going wrong and a big increase in the illegal cultivation of marijuana and selling it in the market,” said Lt. Larry Lopez of the San Bernardino County Sheriff.

Siskiyou County Sheriff LaRue said that, while there are enhanced penalties for certain violations that include tax evasion and environmental crimes, most illegal farming cases do not have strong penalties that prohibit production.

Because law enforcement is limited, Kendall County Sheriff of Mendocino said raids by state agencies are like a game of Whac-A-Mole.

“We can cut it off and, by golly, it comes back up the next day,” he said.

Mendocino County sheriff's deputies destroy marijuana in 2022.

(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

Raids are also a limited tool for law enforcement, because they lead to the arrest of workers – not owners.

“It's a common strategy for black market promoters to hide behind workers and stay safe from law enforcement,” LaRue said. “It is unusual for high-level planners to be near cultivated areas.”

Despite setbacks and frustrations, Sheriffs LaRue and Kendall and Lt. Lopez still supports the raid and accepts the country's aid.

But they say, to have a meaningful effect, the raids must be accompanied by policy changes that deal with less profits for legal farmers and less penalties for illegals.

And after years of calling for change, there is a growing sense of resentment among those at the forefront.

“We've reached a time in the state of California where the makers of these laws – the governor, the legislators – refuse to talk to the people, and those are the sheriffs and the police chiefs,” Kendall said. “If we say this won't work, it just hits the ground running.”