With two days left before Election Day, a new poll shows Los Angeles County Dist. He said. George Gascón narrowly cut into challenger Nathan Hochman's lead in the race for the incumbent's seat.
But Gascón are still 25 points behind in the closely watched competition. While that's an improvement over the 30-point deficit he faced in the same poll on Oct. 8, it's still better than the 25-point deficit he faced in the Aug. 18.
If the election were held today, 50% of voters would vote for Hochman, a former federal prosecutor, and 25% would vote for Gascón, a former LAPD assistant chief who took office in 2020 on a progressive criminal justice platform. change. That leaves 25% undecided, according to a poll of about 1,205 LA County voters from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, sponsored by The Times.
The vote comes at the end of a tense political season by both candidates and their supporters. Since the final Berkeley-LA Times results were released on Oct. 8, Gascón and Hochman held a series of campaign events throughout the region, spoke to hundreds of voters, and faced a heated debate.
Mark DiCamillo, director of an online poll conducted in English and Spanish between October 22-29, said the slight narrowing of the gap between Gascón and Hochman should not give much hope to the incumbent.
“It's not really that big of a change. Voters are very attached to where they were before, a quarter don't pay much attention,” he said.
Negative opinions of Hochman have risen slightly since last month's election, which DiCamillo attributed in part to Hochman's “red letter” Republican status in blue-collar LA County, but his unpopularity still pales in comparison to the bad vibes voters seem to be getting. Gascón. 49 percent of likely voters have a favorable or very unfavorable opinion of Gascón, compared to 15 percent for Hochman, who has served as an assistant US attorney general and past president of the LA City Ethics Commission.
“He usually votes for Gascón,” DiCamillo said. “Hochman is another entrant in this race and he is lucky enough to run with someone who is not famous.”
About 70% of Gascón's supporters said party bias played a role in their decision, and it's possible that undecided voters may go for the incumbent as Democrats have a big advantage in voter registration in LA County.
Hochman is running as an independent and has worked to distance himself from his former GOP party, saying he plans to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in this year's presidential race.
Jamarah Hayner, Gascón's chief strategist, said the narrow deficit is a sign that his campaign's basic game is having an impact on the race.
“What we're hearing when we talk to voters is a lot of concern about Hochman's history with the Republican Party and the possibility that he will roll back progress on issues like police accountability and wrongful convictions,” he said in a statement. “So every phone call and door knock is important as we get to the call.”
Hochman responded that poll results still show voters frustrated with Gascón. A former two-term DA in San Francisco, Gascón has faced numerous lawsuits from his staff in LA over the implementation of his policies. He was also forced to confront the idea that crime was on the rise – even pointing to statistics showing a decline in other categories.
“The people of Los Angeles County are fed up with crime and are ready for new leadership in the DA's Office,” Hochman said in a statement. “I am grateful that the voters want a prosecutor like me who is 34 years old with criminal justice experience who will make decisions based on facts and the law and not on political agendas.”
Asked a list of factors affecting the DA race, 54% of voters named “the ability to prosecute cases involving violent crimes” as influencing their decision; 48% say “making changes to the criminal justice system.”
But that hasn't translated into similar levels of support for the incumbent, whom Hochman has also criticized as soft on crime. Gascón responded that Hochman wanted to return to mass incarceration and roll back police reform and accountability.
Asked if Gascón should have reason to be optimistic on election day, DiCamillo said: “Unless the voting state is changed, I would say no.
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