Why Trump's election puts the future of US support in Ukraine in doubt – National
Donald Trump's return to the White House could mark a turning point in Ukraine's fight against Russian aggression, and could end US support for Kyiv's war effort.
Trump and his running mate, vice president-elect JD Vance, have publicly opposed continued U.S. military and financial aid to Ukraine and vowed to end the war through negotiations — which could include relinquishing Ukrainian territory seized by Russia. its invasion of the country for almost three years.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has repeatedly insisted that Russia must be forced into a peace deal on Ukraine's terms, congratulated Trump on his victory Wednesday morning and expressed confidence in working together to end the war.
“I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the 'peace with strength' approach to world affairs,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media. “This is the very goal that can bring peace to Ukraine closer. I hope we will use it together.”
Zelenskyy posted that he spoke to Trump to congratulate him.
“We have agreed to maintain close discussions and continue our cooperation. Strong and unwavering American leadership is essential to a just world and peace,” he wrote.
But Zelenskyy may face a stiff reception from Republicans in Washington, who are on track to control both chambers of Congress, after the Ukrainian president publicly criticized Trump and Vance and appeared with Democrats on his latest trip to America during the election campaign, angering GOP lawmakers. .
“There's a lot of uncertainty that will cloud a lot of what's going on,” said Oleksa Drachewych, a professor at Western University who specializes in the history and politics of Ukraine and Russia.
“The worst case scenario is that Ukraine's US support stops.”
The uncertainty comes as Ukraine faces another winter of punishing Russian missiles at critical infrastructure, as well as the arrival of thousands of troops from North Korea. The war has been at a standstill for more than a year, and both sides have continued to suffer casualties.
Trump met with Zelenskyy in New York in September, where the Ukrainian leader detailed his “victory plan” that included Ukraine's membership in NATO, the return of all territory seized by Russia during the war, and Russian funding for the reconstruction of Ukraine. This plan suggests that Ukrainian forces will be Europe's new line of defense against Russia and that Ukraine will develop a military industrial base that will gradually replace reliance on western weapons.
After the meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy both expressed confidence in their relationship and commitment to seeing the end of the war, but Trump also noted his “good relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump has not said clearly that he wants Ukraine to win the war with Russia despite repeated requests directly, saying “I want this war to end,” and that he will force Zelenskyy and Putin to speed up the peace deal.
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Vance has been very specific about what he thinks the deal should be — and it's consistent with Russia's demands.
In a podcast interview in September, Vance said the current front line would be a “heavily fenced” area to prevent future attacks — meaning that much of the land occupied by Russia from 2022 would have to be surrendered. He said Ukraine would also have to guarantee its neutrality, including not joining NATO and other “allied institutions.”
“I think that's what this (peace deal) ultimately looks like,” Vance said. “Besides, the Germans and other countries should fund the reconstruction of Ukraine.”
Drachewych said Vance's stance would pressure Ukrainians living in the Donbas — many of whom are opposed to Russia's illegal annexation of their territory in 2022 — to remain submissive. The international community, including Canada, is investigating the forced deportation and re-education of Ukrainian children and families in the Donbas by Russia.
“Best case scenario, there's going to be some resistance going on there,” Drachewych said. “Ukraine will always want to have that place, and we will still be kicking the ball down the road a little further.
“I always ask, what does lasting peace look like? And unfortunately, that's a very difficult conversation.”
Zelenskyy told The New Yorker in September that Vance was “very selfish” and that Trump “doesn't really know how to stop a war, even if he thinks he does.”
Ukraine's president also angered Republicans after he visited a Pennsylvania weapons factory with the state's Democratic governor and other lawmakers besides GOP politicians in September. US House Speaker Mike Johnson, the top Republican in Congress, called on Zelenskyy to expel Ukraine's ambassador to the US for what he called “election meddling” in a critical situation.
Republicans suggested on Fox News that Zelenskyy's action would “contradict” his efforts to secure future US aid in Congress, which is expected to be under full Republican control after Tuesday's election.
As Ukraine's main military backer, the US has sent tens of billions of dollars in arms and led international efforts to isolate Moscow through diplomatic and financial sanctions. US President Joe Biden has made the defense of Ukraine a foreign policy priority.
In terms of GDP share, Europe has sent more aid to Ukraine than the US, according to the Kiel Institute's track of global support for Ukraine.
But Trump and Vance, along with some of their Republican allies in Congress, have argued that US aid would be better spent solving economic problems at home and that continuing the war would enrich US defense contractors while pushing Russia to launch nuclear weapons.
As Speaker, Johnson was able to work with Democrats to pass more aid over the opposition of those Republican hardliners. The final additional aid bill included requirements for a clear recovery plan and made some humanitarian aid loans.
Drachewych said Zelenskyy and his government may have to make more concessions to Trump, such as more loans, to keep some aid.
In the meantime, Canada will have to continue to lead on issues such as humanitarian aid and reuniting Ukrainian families, he added.
Foreign Minister Melanie Joly told reporters in Ottawa on Wednesday that she spoke with her Ukrainian counterpart and now outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken after Trump's victory.
He declined to say whether the Trump administration would make it harder to resolve the war in Ukraine and other global conflicts in the way Canada might want.
“We all want peace and stability, but at the same time we know that the people of Ukraine are not only fighting for their freedom but all of us,” he said.
Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a Ukrainian opposition lawyer, said on Telegram that the transition until Trump takes office in January could be an “opportunity” for Biden to take “bold steps” to gain more support for Ukraine.
Kyiv has pressed the Biden administration to bring in faster weapons and the ability to strike Russian territory with US-supplied long-range ballistic missiles, which Biden has so far been reluctant to do.
However, Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko told Global News that he felt Trump would want to find a way to avoid a stain on his history.
“If (there is) a crisis and Ukraine is going to fall, then it's already Trump's crisis, like how Afghanistan became Biden's crisis,” he said.
“He (Trump) doesn't want a disaster.”
— via files from Global Nathaniel Dove
