COP29 starts today. On the table this year: global uncertainty and the incoming Trump presidency
Uncertainty and corruption are already looming large in this year's climate talks, as delegates descend on oil-rich Baku to begin talks on Monday.
Azerbaijan, known as the country of fire for its oil production prowess, is the third oil country in a row to host the annual negotiations of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change, also known as COP29, which aims to keep the warming at 2. C. About 200 countries agreed to the limit in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
“There is a lot at stake for COP29,” said Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub. “Whether or not we can leave Baku, Azerbaijan, with a successful outcome will largely depend on countries showing leadership and working in these negotiations in good faith.”
A major achievement at last year's COP28 in Dubai was the global consensus on the need to “move away from fossil fuels.”
But already, BBC News revealed senior members of the COP29 delegation are using the conference to plan possible agreements on fossil fuel expansion. And the election of Donald Trump in the US has created uncertainty among climate groups, which are accustomed to the former president's disdain for climate-related action.
“It's our thing [the U.S.] we will have to face it,” said Alden Meyer, of the think-tank E3G. “It is important what the reaction from the whole world is when we arrive in Baku.”
Trump's election affects the space community
While the Biden administration still holds sway in these negotiations, climate experts, activists and strategists are well aware that the incoming US president has campaigned with one-liners like “drill, baby, drill” and “frack, frack, frack.”
There are reports that Trump's transition team is preparing to withdraw America from the Paris Agreement, as he did in his first term. But this time, climate advocates fear a bigger impact.
“The Trump administration will be more prepared, unlike in the past, which means the impact on the global climate policy framework will be much greater than last,” said Harjeet Singh, director of the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative. promoting the phase-out of the use of fossil fuels that warm the planet.
A number of climate NGOs and civil society organizations held press conferences to react to the former president's re-election. Meyer called the US vote a “political earthquake.”
All countries in the COP officially hold equal power in the UN system, but there is no question about the weight of the United States in international negotiations, and the impact of its choices as one of the biggest and richest polluters in the world.
“We will be watching very closely how the US negotiators behave at COP29,” Singh said. “It looks like it's going to be a paralyzed situation where they can't make any big decision, they're going to be very quiet.”
Scientists warn that this year could end up being 1.5 C warmer than pre-industrial times, surpassing the current record of 1.48 C set last year. Some experts now fear that Donald Trump's unfriendly stance on climate change could make the problem worse.
However, political events also do not change the fact that global action is critical, Meyer said.
“What hasn't changed are the impacts,” he said. “Climate change is real – it's not affected by political choices and trends.
“The universe doesn't care what politicians do or say. It respects one thing, emissions. It's the laws of physics.”
The door is open for China?
John Kerry, as the US president's first special envoy on climate, paved the way cooperation between the US and China at COP28.
Although those commitments may now be lost, experts say China may come out on top when it comes to clean energy benefits. It is currently the world's largest exporter of liquid as a country, but it comes in at 20th place per capita as well recorded a drop in air pollution earlier this year.
“When the United States puts out its toys like this, China just says, 'Too bad, I don't want to play with you,'” said Christiana Figures, a former diplomat from Costa Rica. Thursday on his weather podcast Anger + Hope.
Statistics, former secretary general of the UNFCCC, played a key role in the establishment of the Paris Agreement.
“This opens up an incredible opportunity for China,” he said, explaining that he believes China will seek any gap left by the US in electric vehicle exports and clean energy development around the world.
Of China emissions increased significantly in 2023but they may have peaked that year, due to the widespread deployment of wind and solar power and the reduction of emissions from the construction industry. And promised to reach net-zero emissions by 2060 – although some say the system is not enoughconsidering its role in world pollution.
What on Earth54:03Could 2024 be the year China becomes a climate…leader?
Many experts believe that the global power transition is far enough along that any resistance to Trump would harm the American economy.
“Global support for solving the climate crisis has grown significantly since Donald Trump took office,” Dan Lashof, US director of the World Resources Institute said in an emailed statement following Trump's election.
“If Donald Trump pulls out of the Paris agreement, it will only reduce the influence of the United States and give other countries a foothold in the growing clean energy economy.”
It all depends on money
This year's negotiations have long been seen as a “financial COP,” which takes the commitments of 2009 in Copenhagen to commit $ 100 billion of the US to climate change annually between 2020 and 2025. we are seen as too small a number to make the global commitments for energy transition, climate justice and adaptation to a turbulent climate.
Negotiators will have several leverage measures – including private finance to mobilize, as well as taxes and contributions from polluting industries. The amount they agree is actionable will be called the New Collective Quantified Goal — sure to be the biggest catchphrase of this COP.
“If we calculate the financial needs of the climate, that number reaches the billions,” said Abreu. “So the question on the COP29 table is: How close will countries be able to meet their public financial commitments to meet the current level of demand for climate finance? And what other sources do we have? Can they borrow to meet this?”
“I think it's really important for people to understand that there are two different parts to this,” climate finance veteran Jennifer Morgan told CBC News earlier this fall. He serves as Germany's secretary of state and special envoy for international climate action.
“One in the global economy, how should we change the investment that goes to oil … to a clean economy? And that's a huge number of billions. And then there's a discussion, OK, what is the core of the countries and what countries are they committed to, to help promote access to those billions?”
Who is contributing? Who's taking it?
Who gives and who takes is expected to enter the negotiation rooms, as the shares of developed and developing countries were given decades ago, before countries like China and Saudi Arabia became economic powerhouses.
Climate finance aims to support three buckets of critical needs.
The first is adaptation to climate threats – money to protect people from climate change is already locked in – from hurricane damage to food shortages to extreme heat.
The second is the so-called “loss and damage” payments, which are owed to countries in the Global South that are drowning and drying up, due to irreparable damage that is not theirs.
Last but not least is financing. This is money to try to meet the promise of the Paris Agreement – to limit warming to 2 C above pre-industrial levels. This includes business opportunities for energy transitions.
“It's a very difficult conversation, and it's one where the climate change community and the finance community need to come together,” Morgan said.
“But it's important because the world's poorest suffer the most because of the climate, and this is about how to support them.”
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