Trump's return to the White House means uncertainty about US-China relations

Donald Trump's return to the White House is sure to be felt around the world, including China – one of the United States' biggest trading partners and the world's biggest emerging power.

The uncertainty of the next few years can be seen in the response from Beijing.

As Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Trump on his November 5 election victory, he also issued a warning, saying the two countries “gain from cooperation and lose from conflict,” according to a post by X, formerly of Twitter, Xie Feng. , the Chinese ambassador to Washington.

“There is no formula,” said Lynette Ong, distinguished professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. “[Trump’s] a sign … a lack of predictability.”

During Trump's first term as president after his election in 2016, the relationship between him and Xi started out as a joke but crumbled during the violence of the COVID-19 and the subsequent trade war. It was not until November 2023 that relations began to normalize after Xi and US President Joe Biden met in San Francisco on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit.

The incoming president, however, who triumphed over Kamala Harris last week, has repeatedly vowed to impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on imports from China, further disrupting China's already fragile economy.

Geopolitical implications are also looming over Trump's second term, especially if he continues to withdraw from the international arena, which raises questions about Taiwan's future.

“There is certainly a lot of concern between Chinese businesses and Beijing among the leaders,” said Jia Wang, senior fellow and senior adviser at the China Institute at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.

Trading results

First, and probably the most worrisome, is the issue of trade, as Trump was introduced in February in an interview with Fox News that he plans to impose a 60 percent tariff on all Chinese imports (and a 10 percent tariff on all US imports) – a blow to the world's second largest economy.

Not only are the rates higher than rates of up to 25 percent were charged during his first termbut China's economy is not as strong as it was then. Ever since there was an epidemic, there was the decline in local housing markets falling home prices and sales, and rising government debt and unemployment.

The Biden administration stopped the studies, put a A 100 percent surtax on electric vehicles made in China50 percent for computer chips and 25 percent for EV batteries, aluminum and steel. Canada is like a 100 percent tax this fall, to mixed reviews from analysts, and a 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum imports from China that began on Oct. 15.

“There will have to be a lot of focus on [Chinese] the domestic economy,” said Han Shen Lin, who works in Shanghai as country director for China at the Washington-based consulting firm Asia Group.

Indeed, China has been trying to do just that. As recently as this past summer, officials such as Premier Li Qiang said the country would focus on diversifying its markets and boosting domestic demand instead of relying on imports as trade tensions escalated around the world. It has rolled out various incentives in recent months.

Considering China's exports more than 400 billion US goods in the United States by 2023, according to the United States Census Bureau, focusing on home consumption will not happen overnight.

“They will require a large amount of consumer confidence,” said Wang of the University of Alberta.

The US can turn inward

As China tries to reform its economy, the geopolitical landscape could change if Trump's first term is any indication, which could benefit Beijing.

Under Trump, the US has withdrawn from many international agreements, including The Paris Agreement with climate change, i The Trans-Pacific Partnership as well as United Nations Human Rights Council.

If he continues to turn inward, there will be a shift in global governance, leaving a power vacuum that China can rise to fill with little resistance to the US-led Western alliance.

“China can take this opportunity to make more friends or at least reduce rivals and enemies,” said Wang.

This is a work in progress, the latest example being the October meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping – the first in five years due to various border disputes. (India may have its own reasons to meet.)

“We believe that the relationship between India and China is very important, not only for our people but also for global peace, stability and progress,” Modi said in October.

The question of Taiwan

According to Lin of The Asia Group, it may be “atrophy of the alliance system.”

With that, China may have an opportunity to assert its presence in its sphere of influence, including the Pacific, putting Taiwan's future in doubt.

Under the “One China” policy, Beijing considers Taiwan a part of the country, not an independent country, which often advocates “reunification.”

Although it does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, the US does obligations held unlawfully and undertakes to defend themselves.

In 2016, Trump upset China after receiving a phone call from Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen after winning the White House, becoming the first US president (and president-elect) to speak to a Taiwanese leader since the 1970s.

In October, he told the Wall Street Journal that China would not dare to provoke the Republican leader because President Xi Jinping knows he is “crazy.”

However, in a recent episode of The Joe Rogan Experience podcast, Trump thought that Taiwan should pay Washington for its defense and constantly accused it of a campaign to steal the US semiconductor industry, threatening higher tariffs.

Currently, analysts estimate that about 90 percent of the world's advanced chips are produced by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

Given the president-elect's intransigence and previous non-interventionist stance, some say he may lose sight of the island as he focuses on relations with Beijing.

“He might forget [about defending Taiwan] absolutely,” said Ong of the University of Toronto. “That would send a strong kind of signal to China that Taiwan is going to be taken over.”

In this case, Taiwan was quick to deny that its current president, Lai Ching-te, would make the same call, a sign that relations may be strained this time around.

“I don't think Taiwan has many partners in the world outside of the United States, so it's weak,” Ong said.

At a regular press conference after Trump's election, State Department officials reiterated that “China strongly opposes any form of formal engagement between the United States and Taiwan.”

“The US government must follow the One China policy,” warned spokesman Mao Ning.

How does Canada fit in?

With Trump in office, Beijing's relationship with Ottawa could be put in the spotlight as the leaders manage their relationship with the US.

However, there is another consequence, according to Wang, who said that the possible weakening of Canada-US relations and an uncertain future could lead to China strengthening its relations outside the Pacific region.

“Canada would also have a great incentive to look elsewhere in the world,” he said.