DOnald Trump's return to the White House has caused many countries to worry and reconsider where they stand with the US, but India seems to be accepting a change that could strengthen nationalist leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Read more: How Asia and Africa Are Facing Trump's Second Term
“I know today many countries are afraid of the US, let's be honest about that,” said Indian Foreign Minister Surahmanyam Jaishankar over the weekend. India was “none of them.” The call from Modi “was among the first three calls, I think, that the President made[-elect] Trump took it,” he added.
A second Trump presidency is likely to favor New Delhi, experts say, especially as Modi seeks to reshape India's relations with the West after recent controversies over his refusal to join sanctions against Russia or condemn its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Modi has also been criticized for the backwardness of India's democracy.
“Trump's victory means that India's policies at odds with New Delhi and the West … will no longer be a cause for concern for Washington,” said Michael Kugelman, director of South Asia at the Wilson Center.
There may be rifts on trade goals, immigration and climate change – but in comparison, “Trump's return means that India's relationship with the West – and especially the superpower – will grow,” he added.
Modi wants to portray India as a rising global player with a fast-growing economy that can rival China. But critics say his authoritarian politics and the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party have deeply divided the country with minorities being marginalized from their right to free speech and repression under attack.
When President Joe Biden honored Modi with a state visit last year, he walked a tightrope as activists and groups pressured him to confront Modi about his human rights record. However, the two leaders have released new business deals in defense and technology.
Such concerns will not be a problem for Trump, said Uday Chandra, an expert on South Asia and foreign policy. “He's being reinvented from an Indian point of view … he's very active.”
Trump, a long-time admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, may also have a better understanding of India's relationship with Moscow, which dates back to the Cold War, its history of Russian arms purchases, and its refusal to take sides in the empire. war in Ukraine. “This has been a real thorn in the side of India-US relations for the past two years … but with Trump, I don't see this as a problem,” Chandra said.
One hot button issue is trading. In his first term, trade tensions between the two countries came to a head when Trump called India a “tariff king” over disagreements over farm goods, Harley Davidson motorcycles and medical equipment. In 2019, he canceled the country's special trade privileges and India responded by slapping tariffs on more than a dozen American goods.
In this case, Trump wants to impose a “global” tariff of 10% or 20% on all imports and raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60%. India, which counts the US as its second largest trading partner, will not leave it at that.
“New Delhi will have to do more than revise its policies to deal with Trump's emphasis on fair trade,” said C Rajamohan, a professor at the Center for South Asian Studies in Singapore.
Immigration could become a sore point if Trump tries to curb skilled immigration. Indians tend to be the largest group applying for H1-B work visas but Trump had called the visa system “very bad” and “unfair” for American workers.
Progress on climate change and clean energy could also be affected.
“India and the US have done a lot on this in the last four years – but this is something that can be solved because the Trump administration is more aligned with the fossil fuel industry than green technology,” said Milan Vaishnav, of South Asia. Program director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Both Trump and Modi have combined strong tactics, relying on a passionate support base and expanding divisions to consolidate votes. And unlike liberal Western leaders, Trump doesn't see Modi's policies at home as problematic — or justified, Kugelman said.
“Both are patriots dedicated to making their countries strong at home and abroad,” he added.
Analysts also point to a personal bond between the two. When Trump visited India in 2020, Modi threw him a party at the world's largest cricket stadium.
The year before that, Trump held a big rally for Modi in Texas and likened him to Elvis Presley for his ability to draw a crowd. In his letter congratulating Trump on X last week, Modi shared pictures of the two leaders hugging, smiling and holding hands.
“There is tension between the two,” said Chandra. “But they are also united by a shared worldview—that we are in a post-liberal world and that liberalism as a guiding principle for global politics is no longer valid. That is as true in India as it is in America.”
—Reported from New Delhi.
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