Tropical Storm Sara forms in the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Sara formed in the Caribbean on Thursday, becoming the 18th called a storm for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This system, formerly known as Tropical Depression 19, developed in the western Caribbean earlier this week and strengthened as it moved westward toward Central America.

Sara has sustained winds of 40 mph and is located 65 miles northwest of the Nicaragua-Honduras border, moving west, the National Hurricane Center said at 4 p.m. ET. The weather is considered a tropical storm when its sustained wind speed reaches at least 39 mph.

The storm is expected to continue in the Caribbean over the weekend and slowly move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. After that, its path is unclear. CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan said most models are now trending toward dissipating after entering the Gulf of Mexico or over Mexico, but a few are still headed toward Florida.

“Florida residents should closely monitor forecast updates as they come in,” Nolan advised.

Atlantic Hurricane Season it officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with activity usually peaking between August and mid-October. The average season brings 14 named hurricanes, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which predicted the 2024 season will produce “above average” numbers.

What is the projected path of Tropical Storm Sara?

Tropical Storm Sara may bring catastrophic rainfall to parts of Central America. Between 10 and 20 inches of heavy rain is possible in Honduras early next week, forecasters warned, with up to 30 inches accumulating in other areas.

Forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said they expected “life-threatening” flooding to hit northern Honduras and continue through the weekend. The typhoon center also warned of potentially catastrophic damage from the storm, especially in the mountainous area near Sierra La Esperanza on the country's northeast coast. They estimate that those conditions will continue until the weekend.

Some of the countries of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua will likely receive between 5 and 10 centimeters of rain as the storm passes through that region, but as much as 15 centimeters is possible.

Governments across Central America have issued various watches and warnings as people brace for the effects of Sara. Large parts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are under a hurricane watch or tropical storm warning, according to the hurricane center.

Will Tropical Storm Sara become a hurricane?

It remains to be seen whether Sara will strengthen into a hurricane when it is expected to approach the east coast of Honduras on Friday or Saturday, but forecasters say the storm could be “near or at hurricane strength” if it does.

A hot storm it becomes a storm when its sustained winds reach at least 74 mph, it becomes a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Forecasters also warned residents of Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula to brace for possible impacts from Sara early next week.

Will Tropical Storm Sara make landfall in Florida?

After entering the Gulf of Mexico, some forecasters suggested the storm could turn right and head toward Florida late next week, although Nolan noted that conditions could change quickly. Some models have the storm moving into the middle of the Gulf and possibly dispersing.

Storm hunters were flying over the area Thursday to investigate the strength and structure of the developing weather system.

Forecast models take current environmental factors and historical data to calculate “spaghetti patches” where systems can track. Each model uses different statistics, and the forecast track is the result of consensus from those models.

“It is too soon to determine what impact the system will bring to the eastern parts of the Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba over the next week,” the hurricane center said Thursday. “Residents in these areas should regularly monitor forecast updates.”

contributed to this report.