Dspeaking at a press conference with Israeli journalists earlier this month, an Israeli military official appeared to offer a glimpse of Israel's ultimate intentions in Gaza. Brig. Gen. Itzik Cohen revealed that the Israeli army was about to completely evict Palestinian civilians from northern Gaza, where the war that has lasted more than a year against Hamas terrorists has intensified. The officer reportedly told reporters that no more aid would be allowed to enter the northern part of the Strip, as “there will be no civilians left.” Those who have been removed, said the police officer, will not be allowed to return to their homes.
These words seem to confirm what the Palestinians fear, as well as conservative members of Israel's ruling coalition who have called for Israel to prepare for a military presence in Gaza and, along with it, the possible return of Israeli settlements to the area. But this comment was quickly retracted by a spokesman for the Israel Defense Force (IDF), who emphasized that the officer was only talking about operations in the northern city of Jabalia, and added that the interpretation of these words “does not reflect the IDF's intentions and values.”
Is there an end game? As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has revealed the plan for Gaza, it is to eliminate the territory of Hamas and other Palestinian terrorists who caused the attack on Israel that was killed on October 7, where 1,200 people were killed, and to return approximately 100 hostages. and the remains of the hostages still on the Strip. But Yoav Gallant, whom Netanyahu dismissed as defense minister last week citing a “trust crisis,” reportedly told the hostages' families that there is no longer a military reason for Israel to remain in Gaza, and that the government is escalating the war. “with the desire to stay here.” Netanyahu has since been accused of sabotaging efforts to secure a hostage deal—allegations he denies.
Analysts and former Israeli national security officials told TIME that the ground truth points to a long-term Israeli military presence. The IDF built bases and infrastructure, bisecting the Strip between north and south with the four-mile-long Netzarim Corridor, cordon santaire it was named after one of the Jewish settlements Israel abandoned in 2005, when it withdrew settlers and military forces from the Strip, apparently for good. The construction may be justified by the need to stop the destruction of Hamas, although experts say the work appears to be too much.
“We're actually at a point where Hamas has been greatly degraded and can't do much militarily,” said Brian Carter, Middle East portfolio manager for the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project. He adds that Israel, if it can meet Netanyahu's goal of maintaining a presence in the area called the Philadelphia corridor that separates Gaza from neighboring Egypt, will have “soldiers in the Gaza Strip that only contain Hamas in their generations.”
But the 2005 withdrawal was seen as a betrayal of Israel's settler movement, a key part of Netanyahu's still fragile coalition. The prospect of a long-term Israeli military presence in Gaza has been cheered by groups on the far right of his government, many of whom have publicly called on the Israelis to resettle the Strip. Although Netanyahu has not openly responded to those calls, he has never dismissed them, or distanced them from their champions. The prime minister, also pro-immigration, recently refused to fire the national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, one of the main proponents of Gaza resettlement, out of concern that the right-wing minister might have violated Israeli law. Netanyahu also nominated hardline activist Yechiel Leiter to be Israel's next ambassador to the US, in what observers say is a clear sign of his intention to advance the goals of the settler movement. (That appointment coincided with the incoming Trump administration, which this week announced that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had been considered for U.S. ambassador to Israel. Like Leiter, Huckabee is a longtime ally of the Israeli settlement movement and has voiced support for Israel's annexation of the West Bank played.)
“We see Netanyahu embracing Kahanism and Kahanists every day, in terms of nominations and nominations and so on,” said Eran Etzion, former deputy head of Israel's National Security Council, referring to the late extremist movement. American-Israeli activist Meir Kahane, Ben-Gvir and other far-right Israeli politicians are his supporters. Etzion, who last month asked the Israeli army to reject any orders that could amount to war crimes in northern Gaza, said that the situation on the ground gives a clear picture.
“It's a huge area that was populated and now it's empty and it's been renovated on a large scale,” he said, referring to the area that includes Gaza City. “And when [the government] will not legally recognize it, it is very difficult to escape the conclusion that it opens the way literally and figuratively and conceptually to takeover and resettlement.”
Uncertainty about Israel's intentions can be fatal. The Israeli military has urged Palestinian civilians remaining in northern Gaza to flee south through designated crossing points in the Netzarim Corridor, or else be treated as enemy combatants. While some obeyed that order, others did not, including vulnerable groups—and those who feared they would never be allowed back.
“People understand that it's a one-way ticket—that if they cross to the south, they can't come back,” said Muhammad Shehada, a native of Gaza and communications director at the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor. He says hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are thought to remain in the northern part of the Strip, and are at high risk of starvation as Israel continues to restrict aid to the area.
That aid embargo is largely due to the so-called “General Plan”, a proposal put forward by Israeli military officials that includes a blockade of Gaza in order to drive out the remaining Hamas terrorists there. Experts warn that doing so, without efforts to protect civilians, may violate international law. The Israeli military denies using the program, however, as does Giora Eiland, a retired major general who is considered its main architect. As Eiland sees it, Israel's strategy in Gaza is “non-existent”. He faults both the IDF for failing to enforce a complete blockade of northern Gaza when it had the chance, and the “stupid American pressure” on Israel to allow fuel and aid into the Strip, which he says benefits Hamas.
Eiland, who is not affiliated with the settler movement, doubts that the Israeli government intends to stay in Gaza for long; He says that the construction of the infrastructure is in line with the changing needs of the IDF as it prepares for winter. His concern is for the hostages, whose release Hamas will be willing to negotiate if Israel is in control of the area, he thinks.
“One side conquers the world from the other side to create pressure on the other side to adapt to certain conditions,” Eiland said. “That's how wars are. Therefore, we will not withdraw from this place until the political solution is done.”
Netanyahu made a similar argument in an August 4 interview with TIME: “The more we use military pressure, the closer we are to achieving both goals. One, to free the hostages … and second, it advances our goal of destroying Hamas' military power and making sure it is ineffective Gaza.”
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