Russia's gains accelerate as Ukraine's Kursk gamble falters

Russian troops are accelerating their gains on the front line in Ukraine at a crucial time in the conflict.

Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that Russia has gained almost six times as much territory by 2024 as it did in 2023, and is advancing towards key Ukrainian positions in the eastern Donbas region.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region is faltering. Russian troops repulsed the attack on Kyiv. Experts have questioned the success of the attack, with one calling it a “strategic disaster” due to the manpower shortage Ukraine is facing.

The changes come at a time of growing uncertainty as Donald Trump's second term approaches. The US president-elect has vowed to end the war when he takes office in January, and some fear he may cut future military aid to Ukraine.

In the first few months of the war the front line moved quickly, with Russia making rapid gains before being pushed back by the Ukrainian war. But in 2023 neither side made major gains – when the conflict moved to a more intense state.

But new statistics from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that the story by 2024 is heavily in Russia's favor. ISW based its analysis on verified social media images and reports of military movements.

ISW data shows that Moscow's forces have seized nearly 2,700 sq km of Ukrainian territory so far this year, compared to just 465 sq km in 2023, a six-fold increase.

Dr Marina Miron, a defense researcher at King's College London, suggested to the BBC that the eastern part of Ukraine could “actually collapse” if Russia continues to advance.

More than 1000 sq km were taken between 1 September and 3 November, suggesting that pressure has accelerated in recent months. Two of the areas that bear the brunt of this development are Kupiansk in Kharkiv region, and Kurakhove, which is a gateway to the important transport hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region.

Kupiansk and the areas east of the Oskil river they were released from the 2022 Kharkiv invasionbut Russia has gradually taken the latter place. In the latest intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defense said Russian forces were trying to break into the north-eastern outskirts of the city.

Images posted on 13 November, and confirmed by the BBC, are consistent with this analysis. The video shows a convoy of Russian artillery being fired after arriving four kilometers from the key bridge in Kupiansk, the last major road crossing the area.

While these reports do not translate into territorial control, they do show how far Ukraine's defense line has stretched.

Elsewhere, since recapturing the city of Vuhledar in October – a high position that sits above important lines and Moscow spent two years fighting – Russia threw resources into Kurakhove.

Ukrainian forces defending the city have so far repelled attacks from the south and east. But the front line is getting closer, Russia is threatening to surround the defenders from the north and west.

Col. Yevgeny Sasyko, the former head of communications with the Ukrainian staff, said that Russia is putting “powerful jaws” on the outskirts of the city “grinding” the defenses until they fall.

Images from the city confirmed by the BBC showed extensive destruction, with residential buildings heavily damaged.

ISW concludes that Moscow now controls a total of 110,649 sq km in Ukraine. In comparison, Ukrainian forces seized just over 1,171 sq km in the first month of their entry into Kursk – although Russian forces have now captured almost half of that area.

Despite its territorial advantages, Russia's progress has come at a great cost.

An analysis by BBC Russian confirmed that at least 78,329 soldiers have been killed since Russia launched its full offensive in February 2022, with Moscow's losses from September to November this year more than one and a half times the same period in 2023.

The losses are compounded by the “meat grinder” method said to be favored by the Russian administration – which describes waves of troops being thrown into Ukrainian positions with the aim of annihilating the militia.

Despite Russia's progress, some experts have noted that the actual speed of the attack is still slow. David Handelman, a military analyst, suggested that Ukrainian forces in the east were withdrawing slowly to conserve personnel and resources, rather than suffer a wider collapse.

Ukraine launched its shock attack on Russia's Kursk region in August. It is unclear why Russia took so long to respond to the operation, which prompted Kyiv's military to quickly take control of dozens of border communities.

Dr. Miron suggested that while the Kremlin would face domestic political costs as long as the offensive continued, the Russian general staff was willing to keep Ukrainian forces trapped in Kursk as its forces gained elsewhere on the front.

But now Moscow is clearly determined to regain lost territory on its soil. An estimated 50,000 troops have been deployed in the region.

Confirmed videos from the Kursk region show heavy fighting taking place – and that Russia is losing heavily in terms of personnel and equipment. But the data clearly shows that Ukraine's regional control is waning.

Since early October, Russian counter-offensives have regained 593 square kilometers of territory in the border region, ISW figures showed.

The Kursk offensive was initially a huge boon for Ukraine in terms of morale at a time of great disruption, and the strength of this operation was a reminder of its ability to surprise and injure its enemy.

But Dr Miron said that while the Kursk invasion was a moment of “strategic brilliance” it was also a “strategic disaster” for Ukraine.

“The whole idea was that maybe he gained political power in possible negotiations, but militarily to pull Russian forces away from the Donbas to liberate Kursk. And what we see instead is that Ukrainian units are trapped there.”

Some of Kyiv's most experienced and active units are known to have fought in Kursk. Mechanized units armed with advanced Western military weapons are also involved in the attack.

Ukrainian leaders have expressed hope that the attack will force Moscow to redirect some of its forces to eastern Ukraine, slowing Russia's advance there. Instead, experts say more reinforcements have been moved to Kursk from parts of Ukraine where fighting is less intense.

“According to the Ukrainian soldiers from different parts of the front, the Russian soldiers who were reinforcing Kursk were withdrawn mainly from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia,” Yurri Clavilier, an international analyst of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the BBC.

“The war there is not as intense as in the East. Some of the Russian units that attacked Kharkiv were redirected to Kursk as Ukraine managed to stop the Russian attack there,” he added.

The importance of location to both parties is the strength it gives their position in any potential negotiations. Although no peace talks have been discussed, President-elect Trump said he could end the war within 24 hours, without saying how.

Tuesday, Ukraine fired long-range missiles supplied by the US to Russia for the first time – a day after Washington gave it permission to do so. It is thought that the decision was made in part to help Ukraine hold on to part of the Kursk region, to use as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.

But Dr Miron told the BBC that Russia's advances had given them a stronger negotiating position as Trump's foreign policy team prepares to take over.

“What they control right now, gives them some advantage” he said. “When it comes to negotiations, I am sure that as the Russian side has been insisting, 'we will do it based on the configuration of the battlefield'.”

“From the Russian point of view, they have much better cards than the Ukrainians.”

Additional reporting by Alex Murray.