If you happen to have a look at the highest of the American League leaderboards this 12 months, you can be forgiven for treating baseball prefer it’s the NBA, the place the most effective gamers all lead their groups to the playoffs. Aaron Choose and Juan Soto are on the identical workforce, so in fact that workforce is the AL’s high seed. Gunnar Henderson’s Orioles received a powerful 90 video games and took the highest Wild Card spot. The subsequent workforce down? Bobby Witt Jr.’s Royals, who notched 86 wins in a breakout efficiency that has Kansas Metropolis within the playoffs for the primary time since successful the World Sequence in 2015.
That places the conflict between the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas Metropolis Royals in stark lighting: Henderson’s superior supporting solid will hope to beat Witt’s sheer brilliance. The celebs shine brightly, and that’s simply how baseball works in October.
That’s not how baseball works typically, although. Good gamers generally drag their groups to the playoffs, however these groups have been nearly at all times fairly good anyway. Sterling particular person efforts nonetheless miss the postseason on a regular basis. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani teamed up for a half-decade and by no means made it to October. The Orioles and Royals are each excess of a frontman and his backup singers. The record of “everybody elses” on this sequence is stuffed with gamers who’re stars in their very own proper, and attention-grabbing tales abound.
There’s Adley Rutschman, who earlier than the season felt about as more likely to flip in an MVP-caliber marketing campaign as Henderson. He’d chartered a meteoric course by his first two years, offering a nook outfielder’s bat with elite protection on the hardest place on the diamond. However he’s been worse throughout the board in 2024; he’s barely hitting higher than league common, and his work behind the plate is at a profession low as nicely.
Possibly it’s simply fatigue – no catcher has made extra plate appearances than Rutschman over the previous two years — however he went from a 123 wRC+ on the All-Star Break to a 73 within the second half, and the underlying metrics are ugly. His barrel fee declined from 8.1% to 2.3%, and all the opposite contact high quality metrics agreed. Nonetheless, there’s a sleeping large right here, able to be woke up. Whether or not that may occur this postseason is open for debate.
Or take Cole Ragans, Kansas Metropolis’s sport one starter. Fifteen months in the past, he obtained traded for Aroldis Chapman straight up, a minor a part of the Rangers’ commerce deadline enhancements as they chased the playoffs. Ragans has been top-of-the-line starters within the sport for the reason that day he arrived in Kansas Metropolis. He took the ball 32 instances and appears more likely to end within the high three for Cy Younger in his first full season as an enormous league starter.
Is it slightly bizarre that he went from roster afterthought to ace? Certain, however the underlying numbers again up his outstanding transformation. He’s lacking bats at an elite stage. He has three glorious pitches, plus two common ones to interrupt out in case of emergency. Like Rutschman, although, the workload is likely to be catching as much as him. He’s been strolling extra opponents and putting out fewer of them in August and September; solely a mid-.200s BABIP has stored his ERA from reflecting it. Possibly pitching on six days relaxation in Sport 1 will assist him recuperate – or perhaps he’ll simply be adequate to beat fatigue and win anyway. Both manner, this would be the largest problem of his profession.
His Sport 1 opponent, Corbin Burnes, already has a Cy Younger win in his again pocket, and he’ll nearly definitely end within the high 5 this 12 months as nicely. He’s a really totally different pitcher than he was again in 2021, when he struck out greater than a 3rd of opposing batters and led the league in every part besides innings pitched. Nowadays, he’s utilizing his cutter to generate weak contact as a substitute of miss bats. His two breaking balls, a hammer curve and tight slider, are nonetheless fearsome. He’s throwing as exhausting as ever. He’s extra savvy veteran than younger upstart now, however he nonetheless undoubtedly has the instruments to show in a dominant month and carry the Orioles rotation.
That’s precisely what the O’s hoped for once they traded for Burnes this spring. They needed an ace to pair with their spectacular assortment of younger hitters, so that they broke with their prospect-hugging methods and despatched Joey Ortiz and DL Corridor to Milwaukee in alternate for Burnes. And he’s delivered, giving them a ton of begins, a top-10 innings load, and Cy Younger-caliber ends in these innings. This O’s workforce would really feel so much worse with out Burnes; three of the 5 starters of their supreme rotation are on the IL in the intervening time, and the bullpen’s banged up too. Burnes is their finest pitcher by a mile.
That’s not how issues look within the different dugout. Ragans is likely to be his workforce’s Sport 1 starter, however Seth Lugo appears to be like more likely to beat him in award voting this 12 months. Lugo toiled for years as a multi-inning reliever for the Mets earlier than getting a shot as a starter final 12 months in San Diego, at age 33. He parlayed success there right into a $45 million contract and promptly put collectively his finest 12 months but in Kansas Metropolis.
Lugo succeeds very in a different way than Ragans and Burnes. Whereas seemingly each pitch these two throw is filthy, Lugo will get by with a kitchen-sink method. He throws 9 totally different pitches, so many who our pitch fashions need to lump issues collectively for brevity, however we expect just one or two are standouts. There’s the fastball, the sinker, the cutter, the curve, the slurve, the slider, the sweeper, the changeup, and the splitter, and whereas he doesn’t fairly love all of them equally, he throws 5 of them not less than 10% of the time. His finest pitch is undoubtedly his curveball, a large two-plane beast that he can command for a strike or bounce within the filth. However Lugo’s not likely a strikeout man – he punched out fewer hitters than league common this 12 months – he’s a command and speak to high quality man, and this 12 months’s very good outcomes may be credited in equal components to retaining the ball within the yard and limiting walks.
The Royals’ third starter, Michael Wacha, is like Lugo with the amount turned down 5%. He throws a ton of pitches, however his solely plus providing is the changeup that made him well-known again in his St. Louis days. He too had an amazing season in San Diego in 2023 after which signed a multi-year cope with the Royals (his was for barely much less cash than Lugo’s). Wacha limits walks and retains the ball within the yard, solely not fairly as nicely. His 3.35 ERA may barely flatter his outcomes this 12 months, however make no mistake, he’s a stable pitcher, comfortably above common. The Orioles would like to have him, and he’s going to offer the Royals an enormous edge within the sport he begins.
General, Kansas Metropolis has a significant edge on the pitching aspect. They’ll carry the higher starter to the mound in all three video games. Their bullpen isn’t fairly the most effective in baseball, however it’s above common, with deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg main the best way and a pile of transformed starters behind him. Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV, Michael Lorenzen — all of them can go a number of innings if vital, and all of them have been pretty profitable this 12 months. Angel Zerpa and John Schreiber have been good too. Possibly this isn’t fairly the 2014 and 2015 Royals ‘pen, however it’s no strolling meltdown both.
Baltimore, then again, launched their Corridor of Fame nearer six days in the past. His substitute is a Phillies castoff, Seranthony Domínguez, who’s beneath substitute stage on the 12 months and has a 5.33 FIP with the Orioles. Setup man Yennier Cano has seen his stroll fee double since final 12 months’s breakout efficiency, although I nonetheless assume he’s Baltimore’s finest reliever. Cionel Pérez is the one different man the O’s appear to belief in high-leverage spots, and, uh, he’s putting out 19.3% of opponents whereas strolling 11.8%. Late-inning leads are going to really feel dicey with out Félix Bautista to wash up the mess.
Fortunately for the Orioles, they make up for Kansas Metropolis’s determined benefit on the pitching aspect with a wall of younger hitting expertise. The Royals are nearer to a one-man present on the plate than any main league workforce has a proper to be. They’ve racked up 20 place participant WAR this 12 months, and Witt has 10.4 of that. The ageless Salvador Perez is the one different Royals hitter to crack the two-win mark, and his backup Freddy Fermin is in third place. Six of their 9 starters posted a wRC+ beneath 100 for them this 12 months. Yuli Gurriel and Adam Frazier are on a regular basis lineup fixtures proper now. Vinnie Pasquantino has an outdoor likelihood of enjoying on this sequence, not less than as a pinch-hitter, and he’d comfortably be the third-best participant within the group even when he’s not again to 100%. Witt and Perez have some heavy lifting to do.
In the meantime, Baltimore’s lineup appears to be like just like the output of a pc program designed to give you younger profitable hitters. Henderson and Rutschman are undoubtedly the primary points of interest, however Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg have been each distinctive this 12 months. Cowser may win AL Rookie of the Yr; Westburg’s breakout marketing campaign was interrupted by a damaged hand, however he’s again and batting on the high of top-of-the-line lineups in baseball. Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad, two of the highest prospects in baseball, can’t even crack the beginning 9.
Even exterior of the youth motion, the O’s have some boppers. Anthony Santander hit 44 homers and posted a 129 wRC+, the most effective full-season mark of his profession. Ryan O’Hearn crushes righties. Cedric Mullins is extra platoon bat than All-Star as of late, however he’s a priceless rotation participant and a very good defender. Ryan Mountcastle delivers Pasquantino-esque offense at first base, however he’s one thing just like the seventh-best hitter in Baltimore’s on a regular basis lineup, not the third-best. Heck, the O’s also have a lefty masher, Austin Slater, to plug in towards Ragans.
Enjoying in Baltimore offers the O’s one other edge. Their finest hitters are largely both lefties or switch-hitters. The Royals’ finest guys are all right-handed, with the attainable exception of Pasquantino. Camden Yards is the third-worst park in baseball for righty energy, however the ninth-best for lefties. That left-field cutout produces some unusual wanting outs and “wait, how was that not a homer?” moments. The Royals are way more probably than the Orioles to fall prey to it.
Lastly, I suppose I ought to say just a few phrases in regards to the two superstars who give this text its framing machine. Witt has been completely unimaginable this 12 months. He’s hitting like Yordan Alvarez – and I imply that actually, they’ve produced the identical wRC+ this 12 months, with related underlying numbers too. He’s doing it whereas enjoying shortstop, and a reasonably good shortstop at that. I don’t fairly assume he’s the most effective defender on the place (extra on this subsequent week), however he’s improved markedly and has a aptitude for the spectacular. He additionally occurs to be the quickest participant within the majors. If it weren’t for Choose going all Barry Bonds on everybody, he’d be a shoo-in for AL MVP.
Henderson’s offense is a lower beneath Witt’s, however it’s nonetheless excellent. He completed the 12 months ninth in wRC+, sandwiched between MVP candidates Marcell Ozuna and Ketel Marte. He performed greater than these guys, at a tougher place, and whereas he’s not fairly Witt defensively, he’s a mean defensive shortstop who hits like an amazing DH. Oh yeah, and he’s most likely simply nearly as good of a baserunner as Witt regardless of possessing much less uncooked pace. He makes nice choices, not often will get caught, and swiped 20 luggage this 12 months.
On this 12 months’s Commerce Worth Sequence, Henderson and Witt completed first and second. They’re the brilliant younger faces of baseball, connected to their present groups for a very long time and enjoying at an MVP-level already. They’ll hopefully be playoff fixtures for years to come back. However their squads obtained right here in very alternative ways: phenomenal beginning pitching in Kansas Metropolis, and countless waves of preppy younger hitters with names like Adley and Jackson for the O’s. My prediction: O’s in two, and a enjoyable rivalry for future playoff runs.