Sinn Féin has a narrow lead in the 2024 Irish election, an exit poll suggests. What you need to know as immigration and the cost of living weigh heavily on Irish minds.

Dublin – Ireland's opposition party, Sinn Féin, was looking to win the popular vote in the country's general election on Friday, an exit poll suggested, but its two main political rivals – the existing coalition parties of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – are unlikely to get enough support. to conserve energy.

The exit poll put Sinn Féin on 21.1% of the vote, slightly ahead of Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris's Fine Gael party on 21% of the vote, and fellow ruling party Fianna Fáil on 19.5%.

Voting began on Friday in Ireland's general election after a campaign that left the country's three main political parties deadlocked in what the previous election proved to be a tight affair. The vote will allow Irish citizens to elect lawmakers to fill all 174 seats in the country's parliament, the winning party or parties likely to form a new government and choose Ireland's next prime minister.

Here's what you need to know about the general election in the Republic of Ireland.

Who is standing for election in Ireland?

Taoiseach (prime minister) Simon Harris, of the centre-right Fine Gael party, called the election for November 8, paving the way for a three-week general election campaign.

Either Fine Gael or the main Fianna Fáil party – which has led Ireland together for the past four years under the current coalition – has produced every Irish prime minister since the republic gained independence from Great Britain a century ago. After the last general election in 2020, the two long-time rivals, whose political differences can be traced back to the Irish civil war of the 1920s, came together to form a coalition.

The opposition party, Sinn Féin – the oldest political party in the Emerald Isle and formerly the political arm of the Irish Republican Army – wants to break that cycle and become part of the Irish government for the first time.

But that remains a major obstacle for Sinn Féin.

The latest exit polls suggest Sinn Féin will win around 21.1% of the vote, a share that would leave the party commanding the popular vote but with no clear path to governance. 40% of the vote remains—excluding Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael's claims to the electorate—
it is expected to be distributed among independent candidates and small political parties, which can have a big say in the horse-trading involved in forming a coalition government if there is, as research shows, no majority won.

With the leaders of both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael publicly vowing not to form a coalition with the main opposition party, Sinn Féin will need to exceed expectations and go beyond the other two parties with the number of seats won by their candidates to enter. the driver's seat of the next government.

By 2024, more than half of the world's population will have had the opportunity to vote for a new leadership. In most of those countries, the electorate completely rejected the governments in power.

Therefore, if Irish voters bring back some form of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition – considered the most likely scenario based on recent polls – it could disrupt the global trend.

What is at stake in the Irish election?

A Sinn Féin victory would represent a climate change in the Irish political landscape. It is a group best known around the world as the former political wing of the IRA, the Irish republican terrorist group that created decades of violence on the island and in Britain during the dark period of bloodshed known as “Problems.”

More than 3,500 people are believed to have been killed between 1969 and 1998 as soldiers loyal to the British government fought a fierce battle against the IRA and other Irish nationalist groups.

Over the years US-broker the Good Friday Peace Accords after that violence ended in 1998, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald tried to distance the party from its violent past, focusing instead on a left-wing economic ideology and, in particular, tackling the long-standing housing crisis.

After the 2020 general election, when Sinn Féin shocked many observers by winning a large share of the popular vote – despite not having enough seats in parliament to secure a government position – it appeared that McDonald's strategy was working.

McDonald, who followed the group longtime star Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin in 2018, she appeared on course to become the country's first female leader.

Sinn Féin remains the party most committed to achieving the Irish nationalist dream – a united Ireland that includes what, since 1921, was the Northern Ireland of Ireland. McDonald has pledged to push for a referendum on Irish unity in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland by 2030 if elected.

Sinn Féin currently leads Northern Ireland's self-governing, power-sharing government, so a republican victory would go a long way toward making that referendum happen, although it's unclear how much Britain's central government in London would try to stand in the way. by such vote.

As throughout Europe and the US, immigration has dominated the political debate in Ireland in recent years. A wave of anti-immigrant sentiment, fueled by the country's lack of affordable housing, has hit Ireland.

The country became famous there far right protestersfueled by false allegations on social media suggesting that an illegal immigrant had stabbed young children, it brought chaos to the streets of Dublin last year.

That sentiment has been a key base of support for Sinn Féin, particularly in support of immigration. Independents and right-wing populist candidates made gains in Irish opinion polls, gaining seats the latest local, national again European Union elections in the past year.

Early polls suggested Sinn Féin was losing ground as the current election campaign wore on.

Simon Harris, the flamboyant 38-year-old leader of Fine Gael, has worked hard to oust Sinn Féin from power. Ireland's youngest ever prime minister took office last April and, in the months since, has sought to ease voters' concerns about key issues including immigration and housing and cost of living issues.

A clever social media strategy saw the Irish media dub Harris the “TikTok Taoiseach” and, under him, Fine Gael gained ground with the electorate ahead of Friday's election.

Ireland's famous corporate tax has led to huge investment from outside the country – not least by US businesses, making it the envy of many other European countries.

Unlike their financially troubled British neighbours, the Irish government currently has a surplus budget, which has left incumbents with plenty of resources to tempt voters with promises of electricity credits, welfare payments and tax breaks in the months before Harris calls an election.

But the benefits brought about by Ireland's tax policy may face stiff competition. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to match Ireland's corporate tax rate to the US, a move that could encourage Americans in Dublin to start their businesses back home.

For the purposes of this election, however, the national budget surplus has arguably benefited Harris and Deputy Prime Minister Micheál Martin, the 64-year-old veteran leader of Fianna Fáil, as they vie to become the country's next leader.

Last minute gaffe gift

Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil have been given a late gift as their campaigns wind down.

In the last week, Fine Gael's lead fell by a gut-wrenching six points, according to an Irish Times survey, after Taoiseach Harris was hit on camera by a woman in a supermarket protesting that his government was not doing enough to fund care for the disabled. they don't work like him.

The clip, which went viral, showed Harris vehemently denying the woman's allegations before awkwardly shaking her hand and walking away. His opponents criticized him for being impatient.

Whether it will prove decisive in swinging the election to his centre-right allies, or in a historic win for Sinn Féin, will become clear on Saturday as the votes are counted.