What just happened in Aleppo, and what it means for the Syrian civil war
Opposition forces seeking to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad launched their biggest offensive in years last week, retaking the northern city of Aleppo and driving government forces out of the region.
It was the first significant development in years in Syria's grinding civil war, which after nearly 14 years has been out of the world headlines. It also raises new questions about the opposing sides, who supports them, and what might happen next. Here's what we know:
What happened in Aleppo?
Syrian rebels stormed Aleppo last week, taking control of the country's second-largest city despite little resistance from government forces, according to residents and fighters.
The terrorists are an organization of Turkish-backed religious groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group designated as a terrorist organization by the US and the United Nations.
Rebels have since advanced south and southwest of Aleppo, capturing territory in Hama province and moving into the countryside around Idlib.
What rebel groups are involved?
HTS, formerly known as the Nusra Front, was al-Qaeda's official wing in the Syrian war but the group split in 2016.
Another rebel group – the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, Syria's internationally recognized opposition group – has carried out separate attacks in northern Idlib. It represents anti-Assad groups including the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army or Free Syrian Army.
Why now?
The attack follows a recent cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending more than a year of fighting that began shortly after Israel fought Hamas in Gaza.
Hadi al-Bahra, president of the National Coalition, says the rebels started preparing to capture Aleppo last year but were delayed by the Israeli-Hamas war.
“When the conflict in Lebanon was stopped, they got that opportunity… for the first time,” he said.
Earlier this year, Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo hit Hezbollah and Syrian government weapons depots. power, among other targets, according to an independent watchdog group. Israel rarely condones strikes against Aleppo or other areas held by the Syrian government.
Iran, like Hezbollah, which supports the regime, has also been weakened by recent Israeli airstrikes.
Russia – Assad's main international supporter – is currently preoccupied with its war in Ukraine.
Why Aleppo is important
Aleppo, an ancient center of trade and culture in the Middle East, was home to 2.3 million people before the war. Rebels seized the eastern part of the embattled city in 2012, and it was a proud symbol of the advance of the armed opposition, but it changed hands again when a brutal Russian air campaign helped al-Assad retake the city.
The intervention of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and other groups has done much to keep Assad in power, who now controls 70 percent of Syria. The rest are held by a series of opposition forces and foreign troops.
The latest change “has the potential to be really, really impactful and game-changing,” if Syrian government forces don't hold back, said Charles Lister, a longtime Syria analyst at the US-based Middle East Institute.
Which countries are involved?
Syria is divided into three regions: each controlled by the Assad regime, opposition forces or the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led coalition of ethnic militias backed by the US and rebel groups opposed by Turkey.
Russia and Iran have moved into government-held areas, one large part of Syria. The US has troops in the northeast and east, supporting the Syrian Democratic Forces. Turkey has troops in the rebel-held northwest.
Hezbollah, the regime's third-largest backer, is currently unwilling to send fighters to northern Syria to support Assad, according to sources who spoke to Reuters.
The Turkish military has been attacking northeastern Syria, seeking to eliminate one of the main concerns on its borders: groups led by Kurds.
Iran has promised to help the Syrian government and on Monday hundreds of fighters of the Iraqi army backed by Tehran crossed into Syria to help fight the rebels, Syrian and Iraqi sources said.
What happens now?
The Syrian government mobilized its forces to repel the attack, with help from Russia. Both the government and Russia have been rushing to reinforce and strike rebel-held areas as they try to halt the opposition's momentum.
Airstrikes hit Idlib in northwestern Syria on Monday, killing at least a dozen civilians, including children, according to the White Helmets, a volunteer group also known as the Syrian Civil Defense.
At least 44 civilians, including 12 children and seven women, were killed in northwestern Syria from Tuesday to Saturday, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
OCHA added that more than 48,500 people have been displaced, with critical infrastructure – including hospitals, schools and water stations – damaged in the escalating conflict.
The United Nations described the situation in Aleppo as “volatile and unpredictable.”
“The recent events put civilians at risk and have a major impact on peace and security in the region and abroad,” UN Syria envoy Geir O. Pedersen said in a statement.
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