Aafter surprising his country and the world by declaring martial law on Tuesday night – before lifting it hours later, after anti-martial law protests erupted and parliament intervened to end the move – South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol may not have much left. the rest of the political future.
Yoon, of the conservative People Power Party, was already acting president after the opposition Democratic Party won a legislative majority in elections earlier this year. His scandal-ridden five-year term was due to end in 2027. But now, the lawyers of the opposition parties are looking to impeach the leader if he does not resign due to the failure of the campaign which observers have described as “an unjustified coup d'état”. “
“This was a politically disastrous decision,” said Gi-Wook Shin, a professor of sociology at Stanford University. Kang Won-taek, a professor of political science at Seoul National University, believes Yoon is “stuck in politics.” Sean O'Malley, a professor of international studies at Dongseo University in Busan, says Yoon is unlikely to step down but his presidency is already “dead”, whether he is removed from office or not.
Replacing the President of South Korea requires the approval of two-thirds of the 300-member National Assembly, followed by two-thirds of the nine-member Constitutional Court. Whether it happens or not, depends a lot on politics, as it would require some lawmakers to cross party lines. It happened before, when in 2016 then-President Park Geun-hye, who was the country's first female President, was impeached by a vote of 243-56 in the Legislative Assembly (including 28 members of her party Saenuri Party voting), and was unanimously approved by the Constitutional Court, after involvement from the shame of corruption.
Of the 300 members of the National Assembly, 101 can block the trial, while Yoon's People Power Party has 108. But 18 of those joined the majority in a 190-0 vote to reverse the martial law declaration earlier this week. And party leader Han Dong-hoon was one of Yoon's critics, calling the declaration of martial law “wrong” and “unconstitutional.”
“Instead of protecting President Yoon,” who was already facing disapproval, said Kang of Seoul National University, the People Power Party “will have to calculate the political situation and election prospects afterward.” That doesn't mean they're going to throw Yoon under the bus. Shin, of Stanford University, tells TIME: “There's a difference between voting to impose martial law and voting for impeachment that could ensure a victory for the opposition in the next snap election.”
Dongseo University's O'Malley suggests that Yoon's political misfortunes do not necessarily guarantee his entry into the Democratic Party. “Both groups are considered as two unreliable institutions in the country,” he said.
Yoon, in his speech calling for martial law, referred to opposition lawmakers, who have pursued the impeachment of many government officials in recent months, as “anti-state forces” who have “paralyzed” state affairs. Indeed, the Democratic Party has faced criticism for “exploiting its majority to play partisan politics,” as Korea Times summarized in last week's report.
“Political divisions have become more entrenched, as opposing camps see each other as mortal enemies,” Economist summarized this week. “The latest fiasco,” he added, “may further fuel division and hostility.”
But it is not only domestic politics that is in turmoil. The sudden declaration of martial law rattled financial markets amid political uncertainty in Asia's fourth-largest economy, which the government is trying to stabilize. And the country's international reputation was damaged as the allies were surprised. South Korea looks like an “immature” democracy, O'Malley told TIME.
But some experts think that the response of the majority of South Koreans, many of whom took to the streets against the prospect of tyrannical rule, and the country's politicians, who quickly set out to deal with the issue through legal processes, shows the opposite. to take action: “All democracies face a challenge,” Kang said. “This incident proved that Korean democracy is resilient.”
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