California is concerned about the state of foreign student enrollment in the new Trump era

The number of international students enrolled in US colleges and universities hit a record high last school year, with India overtaking China as the top sender and California retaining its spot as the top destination, according to a new report.

Data from the Institute of International Education said more than 1.1 million foreign students – more than half of them of Chinese or Indian origin – were in the US for undergraduate, graduate or postgraduate training programs by 2023-24, a 7% increase. from year to year.

The largest share of international students attended California institutions, the report said, where USC, UC Berkeley, UC San Diego and UCLA were the biggest draws, and Chinese students far outnumbered Indians.

But under the second Trump administration, education and labor experts are questioning the future climate and availability of these record numbers of foreign student visas – including the Chinese researchers who have become a mainstay on many University of California campuses.

Foreign enrollment at American universities, which usually increases year over year, has dropped by 15% during President-elect Donald Trump's first term. A large part of that is due to a sharp dip as borders are closed and classes go online during the COVID-19 shutdown.

But the trend started before the pandemic. Trump began his presidency by imposing a travel ban on people from Muslim-majority countries entering the U.S. He later launched a trade war with China that hit universities with reports of visa delays in California for Chinese academics, government scrutiny of their research and new restrictions on cooperation with China and Chinese companies.

Experts say it is difficult to predict what international students may face under Trump's second term. Trump said he would lift another ban on travel and refugees from “Gaza, Syria, Somalia, Yemen or Libya or anywhere else that threatens our security.” He said he continues to view China as an economic and security rival, and has vowed to impose deep tariffs on imports.

At the same time, his campaign included promises to “automatically” grant green cards – permanent residency – to foreigners who graduate from US universities.

“Speech and campaigning are important because they point to future policies,” said Gaurav Khanna, an economist at UC San Diego who studies international students and workers in the labor market.

“The flow of Chinese students may remain low under Trump and, for Indians, it depends on what happens with the H1B policy,” Khanna said, referring to the visa system often used by companies to hire Indian workers in areas such as technology.

The president-elect's promises to deport illegal immigrants and his description of immigrants as criminals could also have an impact on foreign registrations, experts say.

There is a perception “around the world that the US is not the most open society the world has ever seen, and it is no longer friendly to students from other countries in general, including parts of the world we should be from, like Africa,” said John Aubrey Douglass of Africa. UC Berkeley Center for Studies in Higher Education.

But Allan E. Goodman, executive director of the Institute of International Education, said he did not expect a big drop in international students under Trump.

“What the data tells us in the past is that international registrations have tended to increase” over time with no exceptions, Goodman said during the briefing. He pointed to the decline after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 and during the COVID-19 shutdown in 2020 as exceptions.

Chinese students in particular, Goodman said, “are welcome here in times of heat and cold and good and bad relationships.”

The center's report said the growth in the number of Indian students – overtaking the Chinese as the leading group for the first time since 2009 – was fueled in part by a 41% increase in those participating in “Voluntary Practical Training” in the United States. The program temporarily extends student visas to allow work training during or after completion of studies.

More than 97,000 Indians were in the US for such training, representing 29% of all Indians on student visas. Most of the 331,602 Indian students in the US – 59% – were in graduate programs. A small proportion of the 277,398 Chinese students in the US – 44% – were at the graduate level. In total, an estimated 12,000 minority Chinese students attended US schools last year.

“The difference can be explained by various factors, especially changes in the demographics of the two countries,” said Mirka Martel, head of research, evaluation and learning at the Institute of International Education.

“The large number of US-trained professors in China has allowed Chinese undergraduates to stay at home and still benefit from American academics and research networks,” he said. Martel also pointed to the growing generation of college-age Indians as part of why the group is growing in the US

Ethnic enrollment patterns in California were slightly different.

In California, 36% of the 140,858 international students were Chinese, and 20% were Indian. One reason for the spread of Chinese in the state: The University of California system, which receives billions of dollars in government grants and hosts a significant number of Chinese scholars and students.

USC has the most international students, at 17,469. It was followed by UC Berkeley with 12,441, UC San Diego with 10,467 and UCLA with 10,446.

Across the board, STEM fields – science, technology, engineering and math – were the most popular.

Of the 6,000 institutions of higher learning that the group surveyed, it also reported a significant increase in students from certain parts of Africa. Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia and South Africa were among the leading or fastest growing countries from this continent to send students to the US.