A photo has emerged showing a Chinese commercial roll-on/roll-off (RO/RO) boat attached to a temporary fishing pier with a jack-up support boat. This follows the emergence of a satellite image showing many similar, but different jack-ups in various stages of construction at a shipyard in southeast China. The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has been increasingly demonstrating its ability to use non-military naval assets to support amphibious operations, particularly a possible invasion of Taiwan.
The photo in question seems to have started to spread on social media today but it is not clear where or when it was taken. Independent military analyst HI Sutton, writing Maritime Affairswas the first to report last week on the construction of new jack-up boats at Guangzhou Shipyard International (GSI) on Longxue Island southeast of Guangzhou city. GSI is the state-owned China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC).
Illustration of the PLA's approach to beach landing inspection and training. The vessel that connects the boat to the pontoons is not one of the new designs that have just been revealed, but it is clearly related to the whole concept. By 人畜无害遥感星/Wb. pic.twitter.com/Ni0PQAr5lF
– Alex Luck (@AlexLuck9) January 14, 2025
The use of a jack-up barge as a temporary pier head or walkway makes good sense as the struts provide significant additional stability. This, in turn, will provide an additional margin of safety. The US military's brief use of a temporary water drilling system to try to help increase the flow of people in the Gaza Strip last year underscored the potential vulnerability of such structures due to inclement weather. The squall tore apart that pier, which did not have a jack-up barge, after less than two weeks of operation and it took more than a week to get it back into use. Bad weather continued to hamper its operations thereafter.
A Chinese boat seen in a photo circulating online now has at least two prominent jack-up legs at the end, but whether it has additional support elsewhere is unclear. This is in stark contrast to what is seen in a recent satellite image of the GSI yard on Longxue Island, where boats with four, six, and eight jack-up legs are seen. At least some of those ports have their own built-in ramps, which may negate the need for a temporary pier/roadway system altogether in some cases. This would also help make it faster and easier to establish these ship-to-shore facilities.
China is building at least 6 submarines that can serve as mobile artillery designed to provide the PLA with offensive capabilities in Taiwan. The boats are similar to the Mulberry boats built for the Normandy invasion. pic.twitter.com/664NdDrqXo
— Edward Conard (@EdwardConard) January 13, 2025
It is important to note that jack-ups are not new, and their use is not related to temporary pier/causeway systems. The most famous military example of this is the employment of Mulberry harbors by the Allied forces following the D-Day landings in Normandy, France during World War II.
The PLA itself has been demonstrating its ability to use submersibles and jack-up barges as intermodal nodes between vessels, including RO/RO commercial barges, and temporary barges/routes for at least a decade. Some of the jack-ups that have been used in previous tests and exercises look very similar to the one seen in the photo now circulating on social media. This suggests that the 'new' photo may have been taken some time ago.
れらはれららしたますますますしですしねですしねですしね].
きっちりperiodical analysisももなりますしし騒ぎしますとうしたいたい pic.twitter.com/sRXcH6WM8S— お砂糖wsnbn (@sugar_wsnbn) January 14, 2025
It is also worth noting that GSI's Longxue Island yard is best known for producing large commercial vessels, including submersible heavy lift and jack-up platforms, although it also produces military vessels. In addition, last year, GSI presented a curious vessel with a large open flight deck, but with a commercial style instead of military markings, which can be seen in the social media post below and you can read more about it here.
It is possible that the new jack-ups being built at the GSI yard now may not be military in nature. At the same time, the presence of integrated ramps points more to ship-to-shore connectors with clear military applications. Regardless, all of this underscores the thin and often non-existent line between the PLA and commercial enterprises and Chinese citizens. As noted, PLAN has been using RO/RO barges and other commercial marine equipment for offshore exercises for years now.
The PLAN has been gradually increasing the size and range of its amphibious warships, but the commercial force is still clearly seen as providing a significant additional capability. Although ships built to commercial standards would be more vulnerable, the extra capacity would still be very useful in supporting an attack on Taiwan, especially after the first warhead was established. The PLAN may use a hybrid army/naval force for future military operations elsewhere, as well as disaster relief and humanitarian operations at home and abroad. The PLA has also operated commercial RO/RO boats for general maritime navigation purposes during peacetime in the South China Sea.
“PRCs [People’s Republic of China’s] in recent years, amphibious ships, have focused on finding a small number of sea-going LPDs. [landing platform dock] and LHAs [amphibious assault] ships. There is no indication that the PRC is significantly increasing its number of tankers and amphibious ships at this time,” according to the Pentagon's latest annual report on China's military development, released in December. analysts believe that the PLA will need a major attack on Taiwan, it is possible for the PLA to test whether it has enough power to stay afloat and reduce the deficit by investing in others operational capabilities, such as civilian lift ships and rotary-wing equipment to address this gap. The PLA may rely on the PRC's large shipbuilding industry to produce the necessary ship-to-shore connectors relatively quickly.”
“An over-the-shore capability such as a floating road will be an important capability in the invasion of Taiwan, giving the PLA the ability to bypass damaged or destroyed ports and powerful ports, which cannot move to a place other than the coast,” a China Maritime Studies Institute report published last year explains. “At least until 2030, the PLA's merchant fleet could not provide the critical amphibious capabilities or maritime assets in the difficult or challenging environment needed to support a large-scale, transcontinental invasion of Taiwan. That said, if current trends in training and exercises continue, the PLA may be able to successfully deploy naval deployments on a scale large enough to support a major amphibious mission in the mid-2030s.”
“In the first wave of attacks, the Chinese navy's traditional attack ships were able to deliver the equivalent of one heavy squadron's worth of supplies (although they may have been spread over a large number of light troops) and about 21,000 soldiers. This pales in comparison to the strength of its human fleet,” Tom Shugart, senior director at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), wrote in his paper. War On The Rocks back in 2022. “In my calculations, I have considered only those ferries of companies that may – like the Bo Hai Ferry Company – be known to be organized as strategic naval vessels, or whose vessels have participated in previous military exercises. These barges can deliver more than two heavy equipment, with waterborne vehicles delivered directly from the sea with fixed reefs, while other vehicles can be delivered via temporary beach access or captive docks. If temporary irons or captured ports are available on the carriers accompanying the Chinese military, they could bring at least five more heavy irons for the brigades.”
3c. …and if China can stop the temporary rigging of its PLA-aligned pure-carriers, or capture a port, it can bring 5 more brigades in one mission. pic.twitter.com/3LdBIF5nH1
— Tom Shugart (@tshugart3) October 12, 2022
Fears remain that the PLA may launch a military intervention against Taiwan before the end of the decade. However, the US military has recently downplayed the possibility that the Chinese military will be in a position to successfully launch such a mission by 2027, if not sooner. US officials have long said that was the year Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered the PLA to be ready to operate across the Taiwan Strait.
“The PLA has always identified flaws in the military's warfighting and commanding of the official media. These criticisms are guiding its modernization efforts,” a Pentagon report on China's military capabilities released in December notes. “Despite its rapid progress, the military has yet to demonstrate the type and scale of sophisticated urban warfare or long-range maneuvering capabilities that might be required for operations against Taiwan or large-scale contingencies overseas.”
“As we look at these operational challenges that the PLA wants to solve, to the extent that their specific objective is to feel ready and confident that they can conduct a short, sharp attack on Taiwan at an acceptable cost, they are not there. today,” Ely Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, speaking at an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank that month. “They are trying to get there. … But it's not clear that they're as close as they were a few years ago.”
The PLAN certainly only continues to expand its use of commercial capabilities, including jack-up barges and RO/RO boats, to strengthen the type of amphibious capacity needed to intervene in Taiwan, and that may also be useful for operations elsewhere.
Contact the author: joe@twz.com
