Washington is a city that loves its holiday season traditions. The White House has its annual Christmas party, where attendees line up for their status-confirming photos with the president. The National Zoo is lit up to delight families and adults alike with spiked hot cocoa. And over on Capitol Hill, members of the legislative branch are scrambling to make sure Congress keeps the lights on for the new year.
Unless Congress passes a funding bill before 12:01 a.m. Friday, the federal government will run out of money, leading to an unpleasant shutdown. Except for a few Grinches, no one in Washington wants to see that happen at Christmas. And yet it's only the threat of ruining the holidays that seems to cause any kind of urgency for lawmakers.
On the other hand, Republicans have little reason to pass the kind of massive omnibus bills we saw last December to fully fund the government through the end of the fiscal year. The GOP leadership knows that Republicans will control the White House and the Senate next month. With just a little patience and a continued determination to freeze current spending levels until March, they will be able to completely exclude Democrats from spending decisions. But on the other hand, the fundamental dynamics at play in the Capitol are the same ones we've seen over the past two years, which means ending the holidays is easier said than done.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., knows his party will be blamed for any shutdown in the White House and the Democrat-controlled Senate. He has only a handful of Republican votes to spare because the vast majority oppose any short-term spending at all. That means Johnson will need help from across the board to get the two-thirds majority needed to bypass his constituents and pass the bill — but this time, House Democrats have a wish list of their own.
At the heart of the Hill's current discussions is Johnson's desire to improve economic assistance for farmers in this bill. A proposed deal to replace that conservation spending under the Inflation Reduction Act collapsed over the weekend, leaving Democrats with the upper hand in proposing new ways to turn their caucus “yes.” According to Punchbowl News, several potential Democratic questions are swirling around the Capitol:
– The federal government will pay 100% of the cost of rebuilding the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. This could reach $2 billion or more. – A trade agreement that would allow free access to Haitian goods and textiles from other countries. – Reauthorization of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which allows duty-free imports of hundreds of products from sub-Saharan Africa. – Funding to build museums on the National Mall honoring women and Hispanics. – The Second Chance Act, which aims to help convicted criminals return to society.
Whatever the price the Democrats are, it is true that the Republicans could just turn around and remove that funding from the full year appropriations that will be put together next year. But that assumes the GOP will be on the same page in March, a prospect that doesn't have much history to back it up. There is currently disagreement between House and Senate Republicans over whether to split President-elect Donald Trump's major legislative policies into separate bills or bundle them all into one big package.
Even with that decided, the tussle over what to fund and what to cut will be a bitter division among House Republicans. Johnson and his leadership team have struggled to pass even simple messaging bills across party lines, and their spots look slimmer in the new Congress. The biggest internal opposition came from the GOP's “chaos caucus,” whose members have also been the biggest critics of the year-end spending spree we've seen in years.
The outrage over congressional adjournment is one of the areas where I agree with the far-right members of the Republican caucus. The ongoing end-of-year budget deficit is truly ridiculous given the number of plans that are hung on the Christmas tree at the last minute with little time for debate. Still, I often worry that Congressional criticism of many of those big spending decisions until the GOP captures the trifecta will herald a policy disaster.
But Republicans in Congress are doing themselves little good in the process. The first three months of Trump's term will see the Senate scrambling to confirm nominees and the House getting all the money spent, as it seeks to renew Trump's 2017 tax cuts. That's a lot for a party that took months to match 2017 with a large majority and little chance that Democrats will step up to save the day. Instead, the odds seem high that the GOP is actually giving itself a white elephant gift this holiday season that it will never be able to gift again.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
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