In the elections earlier this year, the incumbent leaders and parties in India, South Africa, France and Britain were defeated. The President of the United States and the Prime Minister of Japan were pushed to the sidelines before their parties faced the voters. The German Chancellor is lucky his country won't hold national elections until next year. Voters everywhere, it seems, want change. Now it's Justin Trudeau's turn to face the music.
Canada's Liberal Party-led government and its increasingly unpopular Prime Minister face the growing risk of an early election in which they appear likely to lose. After winning a majority of parliamentary seats in 2015, the 2019 election left Trudeau's Liberals with a minority government to hold following a snap election in 2021. Then on September 16 of this year, the Liberals suffered a setback when they lost. a safe seat in Montreal, LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, in a by-election. With apologies to Frank Sinatra, if the Trudeau Liberals can't get there, they can't get anywhere. The winner instead: the Bloc Québécois.
Pollster Angus Reid found in September that nearly two-thirds of respondents across the country disapprove of Trudeau's performance as Prime Minister. Recent polls show that the Conservative Party of Canada, now led by Pierre Poilievre, could win four times as many seats as the Liberals. Voters favor the Conservatives on jobs, the cost of living problem, taxes, immigration, and crime.
Some Liberal MPs have called on Trudeau to step down as Prime Minister and party leader in favor of a new face ahead of the next election, but polls do not indicate a replacement for the Liberal Party.
Although the voting process seems clear, the timing of the next vote is still uncertain. A general election is currently scheduled for October 2025, but Trudeau's Liberals lead a minority government in a hung Parliament, and opposition parties could join forces to force an early vote at any time. The current government could be defeated in a no-confidence vote that would set up a potential campaign in November. Even if Trudeau survives another challenge — his government has already survived two no-confidence motions in recent weeks — the need to pass a federal budget in April makes a spring election possible.
Which brings us back to the Bloc Québécois, a separatist francophone party that has a lot to say about when the next election is held. The group's leader, Yves-François Blanchet, has threatened to withdraw support from the Trudeau government unless the Prime Minister agrees to support a bill that would increase pensions and exclude some agricultural sectors from future trade talks. Blanchet warned that if her demands are not met, the bloc will open negotiations with the Conservatives and the New Democratic Party, which sits to the left of the Liberals, in order to topple Trudeau's government.
The Bloc Québécois is likely to win more seats than the Liberals in the next election, raising Blanchet's hopes as Leader of the Official Opposition. If so, the 2026 election in Quebec could be the testing ground for the French-speaking province's third independence referendum. If Quebec voters are frustrated with Trudeau, they don't have much love for Poilievre. A Conservative ruling, which will depend heavily on votes in Ontario and the western provinces, could leave Quebecers feeling underrepresented in government.
For now, the question is whether Liberal MPs can persuade Trudeau to step down and how quickly other parties can force an election. A bad year for executives around the world could soon turn bad. But Canada's biggest story may be resurgent Quebec nationalists who want one shot at a country that belongs to them.
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