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Japanese politics is experiencing an unusual measure of chaos after the snap election

Getty Images Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba leaves after addressing the media at the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) headquarters on October 27, 2024 in Tokyo, Japan. Getty Images

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost a majority

Japanese elections are usually steady and boring affairs – but this snap election was anything but.

A surprise vote follows a corruption of political funding that was disclosed last year, affecting senior law enforcement officers and cabinet members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), tarnishing its reputation and angering the public.

It was a perfect storm – a scandal that saw dozens of LDP lawmakers investigated for siphoning millions of dollars from political fundraisers, while families struggled with inflation, high prices, stagnant wages and a sluggish economy.

Finally, an angry and tired electorate sent a strong message with Sunday's vote, punishing the LDP at the ballot box. And it was a stunning blow: the party that had ruled Japan almost continuously since 1955 lost its one-party majority in the powerful lower house.

But there was no clear winner either. A fragmented opposition failed to emerge as a viable alternative when the public demanded it.

Although badly wounded, the LDP still won more seats – 191 – than the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), whose final tally stood at 148.

“This election seems to affect voters who are fed up with the party and politicians they see as corrupt and dirty. But that's not where they want to bring in a new leader,” said Jeffrey Hall, who teaches at the Kanda University of International Studies.

However, the fate of the old leadership is still unclear. The ruling LDP coalition fell short of half – 233 seats in the 465-member Diet – after the Komeito coalition lost several seats, including the main one.

Even with 24 Komeito seats, the LDP will not be able to muster a majority.

“It is a difficult decision”, said Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was sworn in as prime minister earlier this month by winning a tight race to lead the team.

Voters “expressed their strong desire for the LDP to show and be a party that will act in accordance with the will of the people,” he said on Sunday, as the results came in.

Getty Images Officials watch as people vote during the general election at a polling station set up at a local school in Tokyo on October 27, 2024.Getty Images

Japan's aging population is one of the biggest challenges for the next government

The hope was that Ishiba as leader could save the LDP in the polls – rising discontent and declining ratings. forced the last PM, Fumio Kishida.

Still, Ishiba took a gamble when he announced an emergency election less than a month ago – and he has backed off.

Both he and his party underestimated the public's anger and, more importantly, their willingness to act.

In order to continue to rule, the LDP will now need to form a coalition with the other parties it fought with in the election. And it will do so from a position of significant weakness because it must negotiate and compromise in order to survive.

It is hard to overstate how rare this is – the LDP has always enjoyed a safe and stable environment in Japanese politics.

It also has a strong history of governance – when opposition parties took power in 1993 and 2009, it ended badly.

Since the LDP returned to power in 2012, it has been able to win every election, almost uncontested. It is long overdue to resign about the status quo, and the opposition remains unsatisfying to the Japanese people.

“I think we are [the Japanese] they vote,” Miyuki Fujisaki, a 66-year-old voter, told the BBC a few days before the election.

“It is very difficult for us to challenge and make a change. And then the ruling party changed once [and the opposition took over]nothing changed in the end, that's why we often stay without food.”

Ms. Fujisaki said she had been unsure who she would vote for, especially since the fundraising scandal hung over the LDP. But because he always voted for them, he said he will probably do the same this time.

Although the main opposition party – the CDP – made big gains, observers say these results have less to do with voters supporting the opposition than with their resentment of the LDP.

Although the voters want to make their politicians accountable, “to [their] “There's really no one else” they hope will lead the country, Mr Hall said.

What leaves Japan is also a weak LDP and a divided opposition.

The country has long been seen as a beacon of political stability, a haven for investors and a reliable US partner in the tense Asia Pacific. So uncertainty is not only about its people, but also about its neighbors and partners.

At home, a faltering coalition will not help transform the economy, raise wages and improve the well-being of a rapidly aging population.

And the task of restoring the trust and respect of a society tired of politics will be even more difficult.


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