Voters in Japan head to the polls on Sunday to choose members of the House of Representatives in an election seen as a test for the country's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
With Ishiba's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) mired in scandal and facing declining public support, the vote is expected to present the party with its toughest electoral challenge in more than a decade.
While the result may be seen as a measure of public approval or displeasure for Ishiba, the election will not see his LDP – which has held on to power in Japan since 1955 – fall too far from its base.
Analysts expect the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) to gain significant ground, but not enough to change the government. The LDP, they predict, may lose a few seats. But even in the worst case scenario, the party will still be number one in the ruling bloc.
Here's what you need to know about the Japanese election:
Who is in the race?
The LDP has governed Japan for almost the entire post-war period and holds a majority in the 465-seat lower house. The LDP's coalition partner is Komeito, a party backed by a large Buddhist group that often backs key campaigns for its political allies.
Founded in 1955 and credited with leading Japan's economic recovery after World War II, the LDP's rule was interrupted twice, in 1993-1994 and 2009-2012. On both occasions, bribery scandals rocked the party and its public support.
Now the LDP's popularity has fallen again.
What are the polls?
A recent poll by Japanese newspaper Asahi showed that the LDP may struggle in the election, possibly losing 50 of the 247 seats it currently holds in parliament.
The main opposition CDPJ is entering, as the Asahi poll estimates it could take up to 140 seats in the election, up from the current 98.
If that happens, the new prime minister's call for snap elections will have failed.
Other polls show bad news for the LDP as well.
According to the Pew Research Center, only 30 percent of Japanese people polled in March had a positive view of the LDP, with 68 percent having a negative view. But the opposition fared no better in public opinion, with only 29 percent of those polled having a favorable opinion of the CDPJ, according to Pew.
Relatedly, only one-third of those surveyed by Pew were satisfied with “the way democracy was working” in Japan.
What is at stake?
Ishiba dissolved parliament and called an election shortly after taking office as prime minister on October 1, replacing outgoing and embattled LDP Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Craig Mark, a professor at Hosei University in Tokyo, said Ishiba called the election a year before it was required under Japan's constitution to catch the opposition “off guard and get a strong mandate to follow his policy”.
“He is looking forward to the public gathering to present a new face and a new image for his party, following the unpopularity of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida,” wrote Mark in Conversation magazine.
Kishida's reputation has declined amid a massive corruption scandal involving unreported political funds.
The opposition CDPJ, Mark said, hopes to increase its vote by projecting “an image of credibility and stability”.
“Ishiba's challenge in this early election is not only to win enough votes to retain the government, but to succeed in the election to shut down his rivals in the LDP's strong wing,” added Mark.
The Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) described the election as “crucial” for the LDP and Ishiba, in terms of gauging public trust following recent scandals and growing economic concerns.
“It will serve as an important indicator of whether the LDP can regain public trust and maintain its rule or if the opposition parties can take advantage of public discontent,” ANFREL said.
When will voting begin?
Polling stations open at 7am on Sunday (22:00 GMT Saturday) and voting ends at 8pm (11:00 GMT) on Sunday, with results being sorted later that night and continuing into the early hours of the morning.
Vote counting in Japanese elections is usually done quickly, said Rob Fahey of the Waseda Institute for Advanced Study in Tokyo, and the results will likely be announced on Sunday night, with only some seats – those that require a recount or involve other issues – announced on Monday.
Why are elections important?
If the LDP cannot maintain its voting position in the ruling coalition, questions will be asked about Ishiba's leadership, fueling anger at continued political instability in Japan at a time of economic uncertainty and a challenging foreign relations climate.
Analysts, in particular, point to the health of Japan's defense capabilities amid growing regional tensions with neighboring China, Russia and North Korea.
On the other hand, if the possible reduction of the LDP's seats is “as small as possible”, Ishiba will strengthen his standing in the party by delivering a good election result and will be recognized as a “prime minister with the support of the public”, said Kazuto Suzuki, a fellow at Chatham House's Asia-Pacific Program. .
“If Ishiba can build a secure foundation for government, Japanese politics will stabilize and Japan's foreign and security policies, which were strengthened by the Abe and Kishida administrations, can continue to be strengthened,” Suzuki wrote in a brief analysis earlier this month.
Source link
