Local concessions but NATO is off the table

By Gram Slattery and Jonathan Landay

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Donald Trump's public and private advisers are floating proposals to end the war in Ukraine that would hand over large parts of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future, according to a Reuters analysis of their statements and interviews with several people close to him. US president-elect.

The proposals by three key advisers, including Trump's incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, share some points, including withdrawing Ukraine's NATO membership.

Trump's advisers will try to force Moscow and Kyiv to negotiate carrots and sticks, including freezing military aid to Kyiv unless it agrees to talk but increasing aid if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses.

Trump repeatedly promised during his election campaign to end the nearly three-year-old conflict within 24 hours of his inauguration on January 20, if not sooner, but he has not said how.

Analysts and former national security officials expressed serious doubts that Trump would fulfill this promise given the complexity of the conflict.

Taken together, however, the statements of his advisers suggest the possibility of Trump's peace plan.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who is facing labor shortages and growing territorial losses, has indicated he may be open to negotiations.

Although he is still determined to become a member of NATO, he said this week that Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions to restore some of its territories.

But Trump may find Putin reluctant to engage, say analysts and former US officials, as he has Ukrainians behind him and may have much to gain from pursuing another land grab.

“Putin is in no rush,” said Eugene Rumer, a former US intelligence analyst on Russia who is now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.

The Russian leader, he said, shows no readiness to give up on his terms of closing the deal and negotiations, which include Ukraine abandoning its desire for NATO and giving up four provinces that Putin says are part of Russia but do not fully control, a request rejected by Kyiv.

Putin, Rumer said, will likely bide his time, take more ground and wait to see what, if any, concessions Trump might offer to lure him to the negotiating table.

Reuters reported in May that Putin was ready to end the war with talks to end the conflict that recognized the current lines but was ready to fight if Kyiv and the West did not respond.

Russia already controls all of Crimea, having annexed it from Ukraine in 2014 and has since taken about 80 percent of the Donbas – which includes Donetsk and Luhansk – and more than 70 percent of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as well as small parts of the city. Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.

ONE TOP PROGRAM

As of last week, Trump had yet to convene a central team to develop a peace plan, according to four advisers who asked not to be identified to describe the secret talks. Instead, several advisers pitched opinions to each other in public forums and — in some cases — to Trump, they said.

Ultimately, a peace deal will likely depend on personal interactions between Trump, Putin and Zelenskiy, advisers said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “it is impossible to comment on individual statements without having an idea of ​​the overall system.”

Trump spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt noted that Trump said he would “do what it takes to restore peace and rebuild America's power and deterrence in the world.”

A representative for Trump did not immediately respond to a follow-up question about whether the president-elect still plans to resolve the conflict within a day of taking office.

The Ukrainian government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

A former Trump national security official involved in the transition said there were three key proposals: Kellogg's draft, one from Vice President-elect JD Vance and another developed by Richard Grenell, Trump's former intelligence chief.

Kellogg's plan, co-authored with former National Security Council chief Fred Fleitz and presented to Trump earlier this year, calls for an end to the current battle lines.

Kellogg and Fleitz did not respond to requests for comment. Their plan was first reported by Reuters.

Trump will provide more US weapons to Kyiv only if it agrees to peace talks. At the same time, he would warn Moscow that he would increase US aid to Ukraine if Russia refused to negotiate. Ukraine's NATO membership will be suspended.

Ukraine would also be given US security guarantees, which could include strengthening weapons facilities after the deal is struck, according to the proposal.

In a June interview with Times Radio, a British digital channel, Sebastian Gorka, one of Trump's incoming national security advisers, said Trump told him he would force Putin to negotiate by threatening to send unprecedented weapons to Ukraine if Putin refused.

Gorka, reached by phone, called Reuters “fake news garbage” and declined to elaborate.

Vance, as a US senator opposed to aid to Ukraine, expressed a different opinion in September.

He told US broadcaster Shawn Ryan that the deal would include an untargeted zone on existing lines that would be “heavily reinforced” to prevent further Russian incursions. His proposal would deny NATO membership to Kyiv.

Representatives for Vance did not make him available for comment, and he has not provided additional details.

Grenell, Trump's former ambassador to Germany, pushed for the creation of “independent zones” in eastern Ukraine during a Bloomberg panel in July but did not elaborate. He also suggested that Ukraine's NATO membership is not in America's interest.

Grenell, who did not respond to a request for comment, has not received a position in the new administration, although he has Trump's ear on European affairs, a senior Trump foreign policy adviser told Reuters.

That person said Grenell was one of the few people at the September meeting in New York between Trump and Zelenskiy.

PUSHING IS POSSIBLE

Parts of the proposals could face pushback from Zelenskiy, who has made the NATO invitation part of his “victory” plan, as well as his European allies and some US lawmakers, analysts and national security officials said.

Last week, Ukraine's foreign minister sent a letter to his NATO partners urging them to issue a membership invitation at a meeting of foreign ministers on Tuesday.

Some European allies have expressed their willingness to mobilize aid to Ukraine and US President Joe Biden continues to send weapons. That would cost Trump some leverage to push Kyiv to the table.

The Kellogg plan, which hinges on increasing aid to Ukraine if Putin doesn't come to the table, may face Congressback, where some Trump allies oppose more military aid to the Eastern European nation.

“I don't think anybody has a realistic plan to end this,” said Rumer, a former US intelligence official.

(Reporting by Gram Slattery and Jonathan Landay in Washington; Additional reporting by Tom Balmforth in Kyiv and Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow; Editing by Ross Colvin and Howard Goller)