Problems with Russia's naval base could be a major blow to the submarine force

• A Russian attack submarine based in Syria has officially left the Mediterranean Sea.

• The departure of the Kilo-class Novorossiysk leaves Russia without any known submarines in the region.

• The uncertain fate of Russia's military presence in Syria among other obstacles may pose a problem for the submarine force.

Russia's strategic naval bases have been boosted by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, creating a headache for the Kremlin's navy, including its submarine capabilities.

Moscow no longer appears to have any attack submarines in the Mediterranean Sea after NATO forces spotted its last known submarine leaving the region last week.

Portugal's military said it spotted a Russian Kilo-class submarine sailing in its continental exclusive economic zone near northern Spain on Friday. NATO Maritime Command later identified the ship as Novorossiysk.

Novorossiysk was spotted a few weeks earlier in Tartus, a naval base in Syria that Russia has used for years. Moscow's military future in the center – and in the country at large – however, has been uncertain after the shocking fall of the Assad regime last month.

There are indications that Russia is drawing down troops from its bases in Syria. Losing Tartus permanently would be a significant blow to Moscow's navy – including its powerful submarine force – which relies on the warm-water port to generate power across the region and beyond.

A satellite image from early December showed the Novorossiysk docked at Tartus, but by mid-month, it was gone, along with all the other Russian warships there. Some of Russia's naval vessels have been spotted in recent weeks patrolling the Syrian coast, but the submarine was less certain.

If the new Syrian leadership decides that Russia can no longer station its forces in Tartus, it will mark another setback for Moscow's navy, which has suffered a series of casualties in the nearby Black Sea since the start of the nearly three-year war in Ukraine. past.

Ukraine's military has used surface-to-air missiles and naval drones to damage or destroy dozens of Russian naval vessels, including one of Moscow's Kilo-class advanced submarines in the Black Sea Fleet operating during the conflict.

The attack forced Moscow to withdraw the Black Sea Fleet from its long-held headquarters in Sevastopol, a major city in the southwestern corner of the Crimean peninsula, across the region to the port of Novorossiysk on Russia's west coast. If Russia cannot return to Sevastopol, that creates problems.

For Russia, the loss of submarines in Sevastopol and Tartus is less than ideal.

Bryan Clark, a former US Navy officer and defense analyst at the Hudson Institute, said the rest of the Kilo-class fleet is based in St.

“The Russians now have to redeploy their submarine force back north” instead of relying on warm-water ports that “you can go in and out of year-round,” Clark told Business Insider. “St. Petersburg, you can't go in and out all year round.”

Recent events also significantly undermine Russia's military influence in the Mediterranean and southern Europe, Clark said.

Novorossiysk is a small developed Kilo. Submarines of this class are diesel-powered vessels and formidable long-range strike platforms that can attack ships and targets on Earth, deploy for weeks, and remain undetected. They are Russian non-nuclear subs that are capable and can carry Kalibr missiles.

Russia has maintained a Kilo-class ship in the region for years. The boat's departure from the region, although Russia may eventually choose to move another vessel to the area later, could signal a broader decline in Russian military power in the Mediterranean.

In four years, Russia appears to have “gone from being the best player in the Med – in terms of naval forces – to now being a non-player,” Clark said.

Russia's fundamental challenges could eventually hamper its ability to produce energy. Uncertainty over Tartus and the nearby Hmeimim Air Base – underlines the broader problem of the Russian military.

Satellite images captured Monday by Maxar Technologies, a commercial imaging company, show no obvious signs of any large Russian warships in Tartus, as has been the case for weeks. Ukraine's military intelligence agency said Russia was withdrawing from the facility.

Whether Moscow is able to negotiate a plan with the new Syrian leadership to stay in the country or be forced to move to a new location in North Africa to continue its operations remains to be seen.

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