Sri Lankans will vote in snap parliamentary elections on Thursday, months after electing a Marxist-leaning president in India's first national election since economic collapse and political turmoil in 2022.
The election was called by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake who won the Mpalakazi election after blaming the country's authorities for the collapse of the economy which caused the country to settle for borrowing money.
Dissanayake's coalition, the National People's Power (NPP), has just three seats in the outgoing parliament, but opinion polls put the party ahead of the parties that have ruled the island since independence in 1948.
Here is the significance of the election and how it may affect Dissanayake's political vision for the country of 22 million people.
What time does the election start in Sri Lanka?
Polls open between 7am (01:30 GMT) and 4pm (10:30 GMT) local time.
How do parliamentary elections work in Sri Lanka?
- An independent organization called the Election Commission of Sri Lanka (ECSL) oversees the elections.
- There are two hundred and twenty five (225) seats in the independent parliament, and all of them will be elected in this election. All members are elected for a five-year term. But 29 seats out of 225 are decided indirectly through national lists.
- Each party or independent party running for election submits a list of candidates to the national list. The number of candidates for the national list of each party is chosen based on the number of votes it won.
- Retired electoral commissioner, MM Mohamed, explained the process to a local publication, EconomyNext, in 2020. According to this publication, the formula that applies to the number of candidates for the party's national list is: the number of votes won by the party divided by the number of total votes, multiplied by 29.
- The party needs to get 113 seats to win the parliament.
- There are 17 million registered voters out of Sri Lanka's 22 million people, according to ECSL.
- Voting will be conducted at 13,421 polling stations across the country, according to ECSL.
- Votes are cast by paper, and voters are required to show official identification, such as a National Identity Card (NIC), passport, driver's license, senior citizen's ID, government pensioner's ID or clergy ID.
- Police, military and other government employees who cannot vote in person on election day vote by postal ballot in advance.
What is at stake?
Dissanayake, who criticized the “old guard of politics”, has committed to abolishing the presidency, a system where power is centralized under the president. The office of the President of the country, which first came into existence under President JR Jayawardene in 1978, has been criticized for years in this country, but no political party that has ever been in charge, has destroyed it until now. This program in recent years has been blamed by critics for economic and political problems in the country.
Dissanayake has promised to fight corruption and end austerity measures imposed by his predecessor, Ranil Wickremesinghe, as part of a bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“What is at stake is the ability of newly elected President Dissanayake to follow through on the ambitious agenda that got him elected in September,” Alan Keenan, senior adviser on Sri Lanka at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.
Dissanayake's NPP coalition will need a parliamentary majority to pass laws and needs a two-thirds majority to bring amendments to the constitution.
He played a major role in the 2022 protests against the rule of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Tens of thousands took to the streets as inflation soared and the foreign currency crisis led to fuel and food shortages.
Rajapaksa was forced to flee, after which Ranil Wickremesinghe took over as president. He brought the country out of collapse but at the cost of the common people. Wickremesinghe's $2.9bn IMF deal has led to an increase in the cost of living for Sri Lankans.
He has also been criticized for protecting the Rajapaksa family – a charge he denies.
“People have high expectations for 'systemic change', including holding politicians accountable for corruption. But there is also a big debate happening about the state of the economy,” said Devaka Gunawardena, a political economist and researcher at the Social Scientists' Association in Sri Lanka, told Al Jazeera.
“The question is whether Sri Lanka can get itself out of the debt trap while protecting people's lives, which have been destroyed by crisis and stress,” he said.
Although Dissanayake has criticized the IMF agreement and campaigned to renegotiate the deal, he has announced – especially after an October meeting with a visiting delegation from international lenders – to stick to the agreement. However, he has sought “alternatives” to the tough austerity measures introduced by Wickremesinghe, and told the IMF team that his government will aim to provide relief to those Sri Lankans most affected by the tax hike.
“This election is also about whether the NPP can consolidate its electoral gains to explore other options, such as redistribution and a shift to local production,” said Gunawardena.
Which parties hold seats in the current parliament of Sri Lanka?
In the current parliament, elected in 2020:
- The right-wing Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), also known as the Rajapaksa family's Sri Lanka People's Front, holds a majority with 145 out of 225 seats.
- Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) of leader Sajith Premadasa has 54 seats.
- Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), the largest Tamil party, has 10 seats.
- Disanayake's NPP has only three seats.
- Other smaller parties hold the remaining 13 seats.
Dissanayake dissolved this parliament on September 24 this year.
Which party is expected to win the parliament?
Political analysts predict that Dissanayake's NPP will win as it has gained popularity since the presidential election.
“The NPP will probably do well – the only question is how successful. Most observers – and the limited polls available – suggest they will win a majority,” Keenan, of the International Crisis Group, said.
The success of the NPP in the presidential election was the result of the fact that “the entire political class was disappointed by the economic crisis and the result of the struggle that overthrew Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022,” said Gunawardena of the Social Scientists' Association in Sri Lanka.
“The NPP is the clear frontrunner, as it has harnessed popular frustration. Meanwhile, SJB will likely remain the main opposition party. But other established parties like the SLPP may be looking at another election,” he said.
Rajni Gamage, a researcher at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, said that the opposition may have done well.
“Despite coming out on top in the presidential election, the leading opposition party, Samagi Jana Balawegaya. [SJB]it is unlikely to do well in this election,” he told Al Jazeera, adding that the NPP had portrayed SJB and other parties as part of the “old political guard”.
“Because of this, the experience they have in administration does not seem to give them a chance to surpass the inexperienced NPP,” said Gamage.
What are opinion polls?
In a press release on Monday, the pollster Institute for Health Policy (IHP) said their survey had an increasing amount of bias because respondents were over-reporting their support for the NPP.
The IHP still released estimates based on polling data but warned that there could be a large margin of error associated with it.
According to estimates, support at the end of October or beginning of November for the NPP was 53 percent of all adults. This is followed by SJB with 26 percent support, National Democratic Front (NDF) with 9 percent, SLPP with 7 percent and ITAK with 2 percent.
Before the IHP reported this bias, the last survey data from August showed the NPP and SJB neck and neck, with the SJB at 29 percent and the NPP at 28 percent. This was followed by the SLPP with 19% support.
When will the results be released?
The final numbers will be known a day or two after the voting. The results are announced within two days of voting in 2020.
2,034 vote counting centers have been established for this parliamentary election.
Why is this election important in Disanayake?
Although Disanayake can pass executive orders, he needs the support of parliament to enact laws.
Gunawardena said the question is whether there will be any power in the new parliament to make the NPP accountable for its promises to the people.
Keenan from the International Crisis Group says the NPP is “very uncertain, and unlikely to win the two-thirds majority required for constitutional change – one of Disanayake's campaign promises”.
In the last election, the votes of ethnic minorities, including the Tamil, Moor, Muslim and Burgher communities, were critical. Dissanayake will need political support from these groups.
In the past, Dissanayake supported the Rajapaksa government's war against the Tamil Tigers. Decades of armed rebellion by Tamil rebels was crushed in 2009 under President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Rajapaksa's brother.
Gunawardena said the election “will balance the support of unelected constituencies in the coalition represented by Dissanayake, especially among the working class and middle class sections that have been hit by the crisis”.
“There will be a lot of desire for Dissanayake to back up his talk of change.”
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