Americans tend to have a soft spot for our former presidents. And the bad ones.
When Richard Nixon died in 1994, his presidency could be credited with opening up China or the establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency as Watergate was to be condemned. Gerald Ford's pardon of Nixon, angrily condemned at the time as dirty political bargaining, was later celebrated as an example of federal self-sacrifice. The revival of Jimmy Carter's name – not just in the way he handled his presidency, but also in his actions in office – would have shocked the country that sent him to the park in 1980 amid the hostage crisis.
Will Joe Biden enjoy a similar place in our national memory? It is possible, and his administration had its successes: expanding NATO, a bipartisan infrastructure bill, protecting Ukraine and Israel, strengthening alliances in the Pacific.
But Biden's presidency will also be remembered for four big mistakes — and four big tricks. They will not serve his legacy well.
Scams: first, that the 2021 migration was seasonal (“it happens every one year,” as Biden said in March); second, that the Taliban will not soon take over Afghanistan (“the chances of the Taliban conquering everything and having the whole country are slim,” as he said that July); third, that the inflation was temporary (“Our experts believe, and the data shows, that most of the price increases we have seen are expected to be temporary,” and that July).
Fourth, and the biggest of all: that he was the best member of the Democratic Alliance to defeat Donald Trump: “I beat him once, and I will beat him again,” he used to insist, even after the debate.
That last delusion was pure hubris. But there was pride in the first three, as he was widely warned (including, by me) at each point that he was making a critical mistake. The White House spent months in 2021 refusing to use the word “problem” on the border — instead, it's “a challenge.” Pentagon leaders have warned the president that the Afghan government will soon fall if the United States withdraws. Biden shrugged. Larry Summers went public about the inflationary risks of Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Biden didn't care about that, either.
Those misjudgments ended the presidency of Biden, who never had a good approval rating after the Afghan withdrawal. Perhaps top Democrats like Nancy Pelosi would have helped their party's chances if they had had a conversation with Joe and Jill Biden about his re-election hopes in the spring of 2022 instead of the summer of 2024. It was left to Dean Phillips, the former president. Representative from Minnesota, to play the role of the boy who says the governor has no clothes. Someone should nominate him for the Profile in Courage Award.
Behind the wrong judgment there was deception.
Biden ran in 2020 with a vague but clear promise that he intended to serve one term. (“If Biden is elected, he'll be 82 in four years,” one campaign adviser told Politico in 2019, “and he won't run for re-election.”) White House figure: “Unity” was the theme of his inaugural address. He, along with all of his superiors, insisted that he be mentally and physically fit to run for a second term. And he promised that he will not forgive his son Hunter if he is convicted of the crimes.
Of these delusions, the first was the most inexcusable and the most stupid of all: It is precisely because power is so attractive that voluntary withdrawal would be the most admirable thing. His bitter decision in July not to run came too late to qualify for government.
Other deceptions: they cannot be forgiven. The centrist voters who put Biden in the White House see him as a safe and comforting hand. Instead, he sought to govern like the second coming of Lyndon Johnson, with spending proposals of up to $7.5 trillion – nearly double what we spent to win World War II, adjusted for inflation. And he began denouncing “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to “the very foundations of our Republic.”
Those MAGA Republicans responded the following year by reuniting with Donald Trump, who now owes his second term only to Biden.
Worst of all were the last two illusions. Last month, the Wall Street Journal published a comprehensive and heartbreaking report on the president's deteriorating health. The newspaper reported that the former aide recalled the national security official saying, “You have good days and bad days, and today was a bad day so we will talk about this tomorrow” – in the spring of 2021. Maybe the president didn't see his downfall, so it's possible the deception wasn't him. But all his senior staff must have noticed, and, as the Journal reported, they used the opportunity to enhance their power. It is a national disgrace that must be investigated by congress.
And Hunter? A father's love is admirable. The president's lies are not. In one of his last major political acts in office, Joe Biden forgot who he was. But it seems that that had happened years ago. History will not be kind.
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