The investigation into the plane crash in Kazakhstan continues as speculation about possible Russian involvement continues

Azerbaijan on Thursday observed a day of mourning for the victims of the plane crash 38 people died and 29 were injuredas speculation mounted about the cause of the disaster – including whether Russian air defense operations may have played a role.

An Embraer 190 of Azerbaijan Airlines was en route from Azerbaijan's capital Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for unknown reasons and crashed while trying to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea. .

The plane went down about 2 miles from Aktau. Mobile footage circulating online appeared to show the plane making a descent before crashing into the ground in a fireball. Some illustrations and photos showed part of its fuselage torn from the wings and the rear part of the plane lying face down on the grass.

Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev said that it is too soon to speculate on the reasons for the accident, but he said that the weather forced the plane to change its planned route.

“The information I was given is that the plane changed its route between Baku and Grozny due to bad weather and headed for Aktau airport, where it crashed on arrival,” he said.

Russia's aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said initial information indicated that the pilots had diverted to Aktau after the bird strike that led to the emergency.

But what happened next is unclear.

A regional official in Kazakhstan appeared to admit Thursday that an investigation is looking into whether Russian air defenses brought down the plane. Mangystau District Transport Prosecutor Abylaibek Ordabayev said they have not yet reached a conclusion on whether that played a role, Reuters reported.

As the official investigation into the crash begins, speculation has mounted about a possible cause, with some analysts saying holes seen in the tail section of the plane may indicate it may have been hit by Russian air defense systems that are defending against Ukrainian drone attacks.

Ukrainian drones have attacked Grozny, the capital of the Russian region of Chechnya, and other regions in the North of the Caucasus. Some Russian media said there had been another drone attack on Wednesday in Chechnya, although this has not been officially confirmed.

Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security company based in the United Kingdom, warned its customers that “Azerbaijan Airlines flight may have been shot down by a Russian military air defense system.” Osprey provides analysis of carriers flying to Russia after Western airlines ground their flights on time war in Ukraine.

Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company had issued more than 200 warnings about drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.

“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is sad to know that despite our efforts, people's lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”

Russian military expert Yury Podolyaka was quoted by Agence France-Presse as saying the holes seen in the plane's debris resembled those of an “anti-aircraft missile system” that was about to take off. “Everything points to that,” he wrote.

And Gerard Legauffre, who was an expert in the company that investigates air accidents in France, BEA, also said that it seems that a lot of damage has been done in this disaster, according to AFP.

He described it as “reminiscent” of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, a passenger jet was brought down by a surface-to-air missile by Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

But when asked about the allegations that the plane was shot down by air defense equipment, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “It would be wrong to speculate before the investigators make their decision.”

The Speaker of Kazakhstan's parliament, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against jumping to conclusions based on images of the plane's fragments, describing allegations of air defense fire as baseless and “absurd.”

Other officials from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan also avoided commenting on the possible cause of the accident, saying that it will be up to the investigators to decide.

National flags were lowered across Azerbaijan on Thursday, traffic across the country came to a halt for the day and signals from ships and trains sounded as the country observed a moment of silence across the country.