The key to understanding Putin? He knows that he will surpass the leaders of the West
Many believe that history is primarily determined by personal relationships between world leaders. Vladimir Putin's 25-year dealings with foreign leaders provide an interesting case study for that idea.
The Russian president recently invited Narendra Modi to a private dinner at his home, and the Indian prime minister declared that he was deeply moved by the gesture. China's Xi Jinping called Putin his best friend. At the 2024 BRICS summit, Putin said friendships like these provide the basis for a “new world order.”
In the past, many dissident leaders received different treatment.
There was evidence Putin played mind games with German chancellor Angela Merkel, for example. At a 2007 meeting in Sochi where they discussed energy in Europe, the Russian president brought his giant Labrador. Putin knew that Merkel was afraid of dogs – the result of a dog attack years ago – and it hurt him when they spoke.
In Putin's tripIn a new two-hour CBC documentary marking his centenary in power, former Canadian foreign minister Peter MacKay said he was appalled by the behavior of Putin and Merkel.
“It's about the dark nature, the character flaws of that person who crosses all lines in terms of communication and just human nature,” MacKay said.
Soviet-born Australian journalist Zoya Sheftalovich, who writes for Politico Europe, told CBC that Putin “knows the brief, he knows what people's buttons are and he pushes them.”
Konstantin Eggert, a Lithuania-based journalist who works for German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle, said “he obviously wants to dominate all the time. He wants to show that he is the strongest guy in the room. He always has to have someone to put him down. .”
The way Putin treats foreign leaders seems to be caused by the knowledge that he will surpass them. He plays the long game to achieve the results he desires. And it is possible that he is happy about the return of Donald Trump to the office of the American president, especially since Trump said many negative things about Ukraine and NATO.
Luke Harding, former Moscow bureau chief of the Guardian and author of Onslaught: The Inside Story of Russia's Bloody War and Ukraine's Fight for Survivalsaid Putin “he thinks Western leaders are gullible and short-sighted.”
“They are colorful butterflies that fly for a while and then disappear when winter comes. Although Putin, who we know is close to the eternal Stalin, he doesn't have to worry about painful things like elections, and he knows what he will be doing in two years, four years time.”
'We misjudged Putin'
Shortly after Putin became president in 2000, George W. Bush was elected president of the United States. He met Putin at a conference in Slovenia, where he spoke of his quick decision about his Russian counterpart, saying, “I looked this man in the eye … I could get a sense of his soul.”
“I think George W. Bush regrets saying that now, because it's not clear where Putin's soul is,” John Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and national security adviser who met with Putin several times, told the CBC.
“But [the comment] it was an indication of the hope that we felt that the Cold War was over, that we could find a way to bridge the gap and work together against what we saw as common threats,” Bolton said. “I think in retrospect we see that he misjudged Putin.”
Former Canadian foreign minister Peter MacKay talks about the awkward meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper.
It wasn't just Americans who seemed to be falling under Putin's temptation. When he visited the United Kingdom in 2003, he was treated like royalty, touring London alongside the Queen in a horse-drawn carriage. It shocked Russian journalist Vladimir Kara-Murza.
“In fact the same week that Vladimir Putin's government pulled the plug on the last independent television station [in Russia]he was treated to a visit to London and a ride with the Queen of England,” Kara-Murza told the CBC.
He points out that Putin also had political opponents arrested and sent to prison. “It was obvious from the beginning, but … Western democracies deliberately choose to ignore all these abuses of domestic dictatorships.”
The CBC requested an interview with Putin, but his press secretary declined the invitation.
Great interest in Ukraine
Since 2012, Putin has become more powerful in the West, something that was evident in his first private meeting with former French president Francois Hollande. Putin was concerned about NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe and the missiles installed there.
As Hollande told the CBC, “He asked for a pamphlet, which is rare for a meeting between heads of state. And in it, he drew a map of Europe and put missiles that were placed in the center of Europe. He directly threatened his security already he wanted to play the victim – 'I'm being attacked' – to better respond to what he might have to do to protect himself.”
Hollande was impressed by Putin's psychological tactics in their personal meetings. “It's no coincidence that he was trained by the KGB. The KGB was just talking about 'I threaten you, but I also accept you in a relationship that is almost with you.' Always play a double game: 'I'm intimidating, but I'm ready to talk.'”
By 2013, Putin had turned his back on Ukraine, urging Russian president Viktor Yanukovych to cancel a proposed new deal with Europe. Most pro-Western Ukrainians rebelled, and Kyiv's Maidan Square was filled with anti-Russian protesters, encouraged by European and American politicians.
Yanukovych tried to end the Maidan protest with police violence, but the protesters held firm. After many accidents, Yanukovych fled the country by helicopter at night.
Politico reporter Sheftalovich says it was a heavy blow for Putin.
“He saw Ukraine as part of Russia, and he saw the Euro Maidan as the first part of a revolution that could end in his ouster. So it was unacceptable to him that the Euro Maidan had flooded and that these protests had put his man out of office.”
Amid the joyous celebrations in Kyiv, Putin was plotting his revenge. He had decided to break up Ukraine by seizing the Crimean Peninsula in the south and most of the Russian-speaking areas in the east of the country. In 2014, he sent Russian troops without markings on their uniforms to Crimea. They are known as “little green men.”
Asked about them, Putin said they have nothing to do with Russia. Meanwhile, Russian troops and Russian-backed separatists began attacking Ukrainian troops in the Russian-speaking areas of eastern Donbas.
Garry Kasparov, the former world chess champion who gave up the game to work against Putin's regime, saw Crimea as a turning point.
“That was the best way to tell the West that, you know, they don't play by the rules anymore…. Adding territory is the most important factor in destroying the world order. Dictators, they are opportunists. Even Hitler was an opportunist. , or Stalin. This is what made them really strong, hold, attack.
Great G20 meeting
Once again, the Western response to Putin's actions proved weak. He was invited to the 70th anniversary celebrations of the Normandy invasion in France in June 2014. Hollande greeted him as an honored guest.
The new president, pro-Western Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, was also there. Putin agreed to have a short meeting with Poroshenko, who knew what he was dealing with.
“I have a few recommendations for those who have plans to meet Putin,” he told CBC. “Point 1, don't trust Putin. He is a KGB officer who learned to lie especially. Second, please don't be afraid of Putin, because if you are afraid of Putin, this feeds him. Go only where we allow him to go.
At the G20 meeting a few months later in Australia, former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper tried the hard way.
According to MacKay, “Vladimir Putin walked into this secret meeting with other world leaders and immediately went to our prime minister … who had been very vocal about Putin and his open plans for Crimea. Then Prime Minister Harper looked at him and said, 'You need to get out of Crimea.' And Putin said, 'We are not in Crimea.'
“That was the beginning of the end of Russia's participation in the G8, because everyone in the room knew he was lying.”
Amid the mounting crises and escalation of the war with Ukraine, Putin appears to have returned to his waiting game as he watches the clock run out on President Joe Biden, who led NATO's defense of Ukraine.
Although many Western leaders are shocked by Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hollande said, “There is a huge misunderstanding between Europeans and Putin, and more broadly, the West and Putin.
“Europeans do not want to go to war. For them, war has a bad history, the history of the 20th century, and there is no reason to think that war can happen on the continent today.
“But for Putin, war is possible. That's the cutoff. We are a peaceful, democratic nation that does not like death. Although Putin, death is part of the action. “
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