The Malibu fire is being fueled by 'unusual, extreme' winds. How long will dangerous conditions last?

Zubair December 10, 2024

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The Franklin Fire in Malibu is being driven by high winds, dry conditions and low humidity, which combined to allow the fire to spread.

Conditions

At the time of the fire, gusts of up to 65 mph were reported. Around 3:30 a.m., winds were starting to weaken, with gusts as high as 40 mph, National Weather Service meteorologist Todd Hall said.

Unlike during the Woolsey fire of 2018, water-dropping aircraft were able to fly through the night.

But Hall said the patterns seen in past Santa Ana wind events “suggest that the winds should pick up early in the morning,” which happened around 6:50 a.m.

Relative humidity on Tuesday morning was less than 5% in the fire area – incredibly dry.

The National Weather Service has issued an unusual red flag “Extremely Hazardous Condition” warning until 2pm Tuesday for Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

The high wind warning is expected to last until 1pm on Tuesday.

And the standard red flag warning — meaning the National Weather Service is highly optimistic that dangerous fire conditions will exist — is expected to remain in place Wednesday afternoon.

Areas in the Especially Dangerous Situation include major areas of Ventura County, such as Thousand Oaks, Ventura, Oxnard, Fillmore and Ojai, as well as areas such as Malibu, Canoga Park, Santa Clarita and Acton in LA County.

The area is mostly dry. Since the beginning of the water year in Oct. 1, just 0.14 inches of rain fell in downtown Los Angeles. That's well below the average for this time of the season, when 1.87 inches on average has already fallen.

There isn't much hope for rain in Los Angeles and Ventura counties next week.

“We don't see a significant chance of rain in the LA area next week,” National Weather Service meteorologist Robbie Munroe said. “Maybe we'll stay dry.”

Tuesday's forecast

A State of Extreme Fire warning will be in effect Tuesday at 2 p.m
A red flag fire warning is in effect until Wednesday afternoon.
The Franklin fire has burned at least 1,800 acres.
The eastern part of Malibu was ordered to be evacuated, and the rest of the city was under an evacuation alert. About 6,000 people living in the area have been ordered to evacuate, fire officials said – most of the population of the town of about 11,000. About 2,000 properties are affected by the mandatory evacuation order. Pepperdine University asked people on campus to evacuate.