The next threat of tropical weather is building in the Caribbean. Will it move toward Florida's Gulf Coast?

last day of 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season the date of Nov. 30, but as we approach that finish line, the Caribbean has other thoughts in mind, with a possible tropical system brewing.

The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday afternoon that Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 has formed in the western Caribbean. If it reaches hurricane force, will be named Sara. Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.

The storm is forecast to become a tropical storm by Thursday, the hurricane center said. It is expected to approach the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and last there over the weekend, bringing the possibility of life-threatening flooding in the Central American country.

Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly to the area Thursday to investigate the strength and structure of the developing weather system.

As a low pressure system was present in the western Caribbean, conditions favored the formation of a tropical system. Forecast models take current environmental factors and historical data to calculate “spaghetti patches” where systems can track. Each model uses a different calculation, which means that the forecast track is the result of the consensus from those models.

The strength of this system is determined based on how much fuel it has – factors such as being in a good position over warm water, low wind shear, no obstacle – and how long it lasts in those favorable conditions. Regardless of how strong it is, models predict it will remain in the western Caribbean over the weekend before turning north and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

After entering the Gulf, a consensus of forecast models has it turning right and heading toward Florida late next week.

A lot can happen between now and next week and conditions can change quickly, but places like Jamaica and the Cayman Islands need to brace for heavy rains over the next few days. Florida residents should continue to monitor the forecast as updates come in.