When Donald J. Trump won back to the White House, many countries thought they knew what to expect and how to prepare for what's to come.
Politicians in the big houses of the world say that they will accept what is being done by his administration, rather than what is being said by Mr. Major countries are developing strategies to soften or counter his threat of punitive tariffs. Small countries were hoping they could just hide for another four years of America First.
But it is becoming difficult for the country to remain calm and continue.
At a press conference Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. He vowed to rename the Gulf of Mexico “the Gulf of America.” He also said he could use “economic power” to turn Canada into the 51st state as a matter of US national security.
For those eager to separate the substance from the bluster, it looked like another performance of scattershot bravado: Trump II, the sequel, unrestricted. Even before he took office, Mr. Trump, with his surprising wish list, has sparked “here we go” chants around the world.
However, beyond the discussion, there are serious issues. As the world prepares for Trump's return, the parallels between his paranoia and the distant years of American imperialism in the late 19th century are becoming increasingly important.
Mr. Trump has already represented its protectionist era, saying the United States in the 1890s was “probably the richest it's ever been because it was a tax system.” Now, he seems to be adding focus from the 19th and early 20th centuries in managing the area.
What both times share is the fear of unstable geopolitics, and the threat of being locked out of an area of great economic and military importance. As Daniel Immerwahr, an American historian at Northwestern University, put it: “We are witnessing a very radical change in the world.”
To Mr. Trump, China is ready – in his opinion, to take the place away from its borders. He falsely accused Beijing of controlling the American-built Panama Canal. There is also the perception, more realistically, of China and its ally Russia moving to secure control over Arctic Sea lanes and precious minerals.
At the same time, competition is increasing all around, as some nations (India, Saudi Arabia) are rising and others (Venezuela, Syria) are suddenly leaving the struggle, creating an opening for foreign influence.
In the 1880s and '90s, there was again conflict of control and no single nation ruling. As countries became more powerful, they were expected to grow physically, and rivalries were redrawing maps and causing conflicts from Asia to the Caribbean.
The United States imitated European colonial designs when it annexed Guam and Puerto Rico in 1898. But in large countries, such as the Philippines, the US ultimately chose indirect control by negotiating deals to promote special treatment of American businesses and its military interests.
Some believe that Mr. Trump in Greenland, the Panama Canal and even Canada is a one-man revival of the debate about the pursuit of expansion.
“This is part of the pattern of the US controlling, or trying to, areas of the world that are considered to be American interests, without mentioning the scary words 'empire,' 'colonies' or 'imperialism,' while getting material benefits,” said Ian Tyrrell, an expert on in American history at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.
The threat of Mr. Trump for taking the place may be the first place to do or some kind of personal desire. The United States already has an agreement with Denmark that allows base operations in Greenland.
His proposal for Americanism there and elsewhere amounts to what many foreign politicians and scholars see as rising above a break with the past. For years, the United States has tried to limit Chinese ambitions with a standard playbook.
The Philippines is back in the spotlight, with new support deals for the US military to use in any possible war with Beijing. So are sea routes that are vital to trade both in Asia and near the Arctic as climate change melts ice and makes navigation easier.
“What the US has always wanted was access to markets, channels of communication and the ability to predict the future of material power,” said Professor Tyrrell.
But in some regions especially, the past as the antecedent inspires fear.
Panama and its neighbors often see the comments of Mr. Trump as a mixture of both the 1890s and the 1980s, when the Cold War led Washington to intervene in many Latin American countries under the guise of fighting communism. The Monroe Doctrine, another creation of the 19th century that saw the United States treat the Western Hemisphere as its exclusive sphere of influence, also emerged from the close association of taxation and territorial agreements.
Carlos Puig, the author of a popular blog in Mexico City, said that Latin America is very worried about the return of Mr.
“This is Trump, with a majority in both houses, after four years of complaining, a guy who only cares about himself and who wins at all costs,” Mr Puig said. “It's not easy for a guy like that not to show that he's trying to fulfill his promises, no matter how crazy they are. I'm not sure the whole thing is bullying and it's almost a joke.”
But how much can be accomplished or damaged by Mr. Trump?
His news conference in Florida mixed vague threats (“You might have to do something”) with Messianic promises (“I'm talking about defending a free country”).
It was more than enough to arouse other nations, drawing his attention and opposition even before he took office.
The French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, on Wednesday warned of a threat to the “sovereign borders” of the European Union – referring to the Danish territory of Greenland. He added that “we have entered an era that sees the return of the rule of the most powerful.”
What may be hard to see at Mar-a-Lago but is widely discussed in foreign homes: Many countries are just tired of America Mr.
Although the United States is still the dominant power, it is less powerful than it was in the 1980s or 1890s, not only because of the rise of China, but because of what many countries see as America's inefficiency and debt, accompanying the expansion of the country. development by other countries.
The international system established by the United States after World War II prioritized trade in hopes of staving off victory – and it worked well enough to create a path to success that made American unilateralism less powerful.
As Sarang Shidore, director of the global south program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, explains, many developing countries are “smart, resilient and capable as the US is no longer predictable and stable.”
In other words, today the world is unstable. The post-war equilibrium is shaken by wars in Europe and the Middle East; on the independent relations of China, Russia and North Korea; with a weak Iran seeking nuclear weapons; and with climate change and artificial intelligence.
The end of the 19th century was turbulent, too. A possible mistake that Mr. Trump is doing it now, according to historians, thinking the world can be pacified and made easier by more US real estate.
The protective age, of the imperialist Mr. Trump's seeming love exploded when Germany and Italy claimed a large part of the world. The result was two world wars.
“We saw how that went with the weapons of the 20th century,” said Mr. Immerwahr, author of “How to Hide an Empire: A Short History of the Greater United States.” “It could be very dangerous on the 21st.”
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