US election: Will Harris, Trump's foreign policy plans help or hurt Canada? – Nationally
The world is watching the US presidential election closely for clues as to how Kamala Harris or Donald Trump's presidency will respond to the growing global challenges and security threats – and Canada could find itself exposed in either situation.
Neither Trump nor Harris have made foreign policy a centerpiece of their campaigns, and polls have shown that international issues are far lower on voters' lists of concerns than the economy and immigration.
However, the next US president will have to respond to a growing number of problems abroad that are of direct American interest: the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, threats of foreign interference caused by Russia, China, Iran, India and other countries, which are causing unrest. in the Indo-Pacific and climate change between them.
There are open questions, too, about how Harris and Trump will approach long-standing alliances like NATO and NORAD, and whether Canada will be prompted to increase its defense spending after facing spending pressures during the Biden and Trump administrations.
Here's what Harris and Trump had to say individually about their foreign policy stance, and how Canada could fit in — or find itself in the cold.
In explaining his foreign policy views, Harris pointed to his record as vice president in promoting US President Joe Biden's reliance on global alliances and alliances.
He says his meetings and discussions with world leaders have prepared him for the presidency and he has shown those leaders that he is ready to maintain America's leadership in the world.
“Vice President Harris will ensure that America, not China, wins the race for the 21st century and that we strengthen, not abandon, our global leadership,” his campaign policy outline said.
In Ukraine, Harris said the US will continue to support its fight against Russian aggression and help Ukraine win on the battlefield, which he says will ensure the end of the war. He also confirmed NATO's support to protect Russian extremists.
Harris called Iran America's “biggest enemy” after its direct attack on Israel and promised to ensure Iran's nuclear program never produces a weapon.
He reaffirmed the US commitment to Israel's defense and, while using strong language in calling for an end to Israel's military offensive in Gaza, angered progressive voters and Americans by not pushing for an arms embargo on Israel.
The latest statements about the Middle East conflict from the White House so-called Biden and Harris have not mentioned an end to the fighting, although the Harris campaign says it is helping to secure one.
His campaign says Harris is “committed to continuing to build on climate leadership in the United States.”
Trump and Republicans often refer to the Trump administration's approach to foreign policy as “peace with power.”
His platform calls for massive military investment and modernization, including an Iron Dome missile defense system similar to the one used by Israel, and higher military pay.
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“Republicans will develop a Foreign Policy that focuses on America's most important interests, starting with protecting America, our People, our Borders, our Great American Flag, and our Rights under God,” the party's 16-page platform reads.
The platform talks about “fighting China” and supports the security and independence of nations in the Indo-Pacific, but focuses more on stopping China's economic development.
Trump said he would ensure peaceful solutions to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East within days of taking office. However, he has not said whether he wants Ukraine to win against Russia and has indicated that it is open to Ukraine to give up the disputed land as part of the negotiations. His forum does not mention Ukraine at all.
He said Israel should immediately end its operation in Gaza but should destroy Iran's nuclear facilities because of Iran's recent attacks. Iran, along with China, has been a target for Trump.
Trump's platform says he will “strengthen alliances” by ensuring they “meet their commitments to invest in our Common Defense.”
In public, he has been outspoken, saying repeatedly that he won't help NATO allies who don't spend at least two percent of GDP on defense — even suggesting that countries like Russia “can do whatever the hell they want.”
During his first term, Trump often aligned himself and said he got along “well” with authoritarian leaders whose governments are considered anti-US, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Trump's immigration policy is closely linked to his foreign policy, which says that protecting America comes first from protecting its borders.
How will Canada be affected?
While Canada may be able to find common ground with the Harris or Trump administrations on foreign policy, analysts say that won't matter as long as Canada continues to default on its NATO commitments.
Canada is one of only eight countries in the 31-member NATO alliance that does not meet the 2 percent defense spending limit.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada is expected to reach the goals by 2032.
However, the parliament's budget chief said in a report this week that the current forecast is based on “flawed” economic projections, and no clear plan has been presented on how to reach the two percent target.
Whether US and allied pressure on Canada to increase pressure remains valid or becomes more intense depends on who is elected in November.
“Kamala Harris believes in going down with allies, and Donald Trump would like to tell them and he wants to see the color of their money,” said Colin Robertson, senior executive at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, who said Trudeau's timeline of 2032 could be '. t is not enough for any candidate.
Even if Harris is elected and strikes a friendly tone with Canada on defense spending, Republicans in Congress are expected to keep the pressure high.
Another top Republican lawmaker, US Representative Mike Turner, recently wrote an op-ed that casts Trudeau, rather than Trump, as the real “threat” to NATO's stability because of missed spending targets and inadequate equipment that he says cannot be trusted.
While Canadian military aid contributions to Ukraine are slightly higher than the US in terms of GDP share, Turner noted the Canadian aid pales in comparison to the actual equipment sent.
The biggest problem, experts say, is that Canada's defense deficit has created a “credibility and reputation deficit” that will continue to undermine its global alliances.
Recent immigration issues, such as the arrests of several suspected terrorist plotters this year, could divide Canada, said Christian Leuprecht, a professor at Queens University and the Royal Military College and a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
If Trump were to withdraw the US from leadership on issues such as aid to Ukraine and climate change, for example – or withdraw from NATO or NORAD, as some fear he will – Canada may find it difficult to establish itself as a reliable partner.
Canada also did nothing by denying requests from Germany and Japan — both key allies and trading partners — to export more natural gas amid energy shortages caused by Russia's war in Ukraine, Leuprecht said.
“We have done it wrong to work with our partners, who we need most in the event of Trump's election to fight unilateralism under Trump,” he said.
“There is a risk of being left out in the cold, (and) this tendency to invest less in defense, in foreign policy … it could come back to haunt us.”
The Harris administration could introduce those same risks to Canada and apply the same pressure — but “with a smile,” Leuprecht added.
The federal government is continuously adjusting relationships with US lawmakers and businesses to prepare for both the Harris and Trump administrations.
Robertson said that Canada will need to ensure that it has a voice with the administration to deal with the economic and security threat posed by China in the Indo-Pacific.
