For 467 days, millions of Israelis have been eagerly awaiting Wednesday's announcement that Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement to cease fighting and release hostages. The deal is expected to see 33 Israelis in Gaza released in the first 42-day phase, which begins on Sunday. The rest will follow when the end of the war comes in the second phase. The news was the first sign of hope in more than 13 months, as the only temporary ceasefire so far ended in December 2023, when almost half of the hostages taken by Hamas on October 7 returned home.
However, there were no fireworks in Israel on Wednesday evening. Two hours after the news broke, Israeli volunteers in Hostage Square—a Tel Aviv plaza that has become a camp for hostages, internments and protests—look relaxed but strained. “All joy is sorrow; it's not even fun to be happy,” said Arnon Cohen, who grew up in Nahal Oz, a kibbutz near Gaza that was among the hardest hit on October 7.
Cohen was sitting in a tent with a small group of his childhood friends, now in their 40s and early 50s, who spoke of relief, anticipation, fear, exhaustion, and confusion. Can the first batch of hostages include their loved ones? Which ones are no longer alive, and will a second phase, with the release of more hostages, ever occur? Neither knows.
Read more: Parents of Killed Hostages Know Dangerous 'Deals'
But one person in Israel should have been very happy: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. After Hamas carried out the deadliest attack in Israel's history on its watch, it killed 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages. moreover, his public standing looked ruined. His approval ratings are high. But in April 2024, those numbers began to rise as Israel and Iran traded fire and Tel Aviv continued to attack Hezbollah. In Israel, success on the battlefield restored a sense of power, and Netanyahu reaped glory.
And, for the second time in his career, he passed the US President of the Democratic Alliance that the Israelis were told that he did not have Israel, and he was awarded with the November victory of Donald Trump, who the Israelis supported loudly in the survey.
However, the public is still furious about the hostages remaining in Gaza. With each painful wave of failed negotiations for their release, they continue to accuse Netanyahu of avoiding a deal. Daily vigils and Saturday evening protests spread across the country. “Bring Them Home” slogans and signs were everywhere, and yellow pins adorned lapels everywhere. “Now!” turned into a national rallying cry, and doubled as a bitter anti-government speech.
The deal should be a political victory for Netanyahu. But he doesn't seem happy. The agreement announced on Wednesday follows the one issued in May last year by the Biden team, which Netanyahu strongly avoided, in order to ensure support from Hamas. For days he tried everything. He denied that certain points were agreed upon. He focused on the finality of the agreement. He accused Hamas of withdrawing the information. He dramatically postponed the government's binding vote on the deal. Then, finally, he confirmed on Friday that the deal would go ahead.
Netanyahu's problem is Netanyahu. Gathered by the desire to stay in power, he is torn between the great public demand for the hostages to be released, and those who keep him in charge – his allies.
These allies included a zealous group of ministers from religious Zionist groups and Jewish Power. They would rather die—more precisely, they would rather die hostages, soldiers, and Palestinians—rather than lose the opportunity to conquer Gaza and rebuild the settlements, which they cannot do once the war ends. The West Bank is almost covered. Israel holds a sovereign territory in Syria that could meet the same fate.
Netanyahu was able to close his eyes, ears, and conscience against Israelis begging for mercy from their loved ones in Gaza for a whole year, keeping these pastors by his side. Nor is he fundamentally opposed to their agenda; it is Netanyahu who created the success of these parties in the elections and their prominent role in his government.
Enter Trump, the one person who is both more powerful than Netanyahu (like every US President) and who seems willing to use it. Trump apparently turned the heat on the ceasefire agreement, while Netanyahu faced a new source of pressure.
Read more: Gaza Ceasefire Is Here. Why Did It Take So Long?
Netanyahu now stands to gain a spike in public support as the hostages come home. But it is the second phase of the deal—the permanent end to the war in Gaza—that his allies find intolerable. Maybe then they will overthrow the government.
But it's not over for Netanyahu, who always seems to have a way to escape. The deal is very risky and each phase is conditional on the previous one. But he may be tempted to see you right. Trump could bring a Saudi normalization deal, perhaps a green light to include more settlements in the West Bank, or a free hand against Iran.
In such a situation Netanyahu can get a public benefit by returning the hostages, while consolidating his base and his political allies and shores up until the next scheduled election in 2026.
The only certainty is that Netanyahu cares more about his political figures than he ever did about hostages — or any casualty of this war.
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