China
China is facing a trade war. Mr. Trump has pledged to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, which Beijing is counting on to fix its sluggish economy.
Few in China expect an improvement in relations with the United States, which have been strained. Mr. Trump, in his first term, adopted a confrontational approach to China, imposing tariffs, restricting Chinese technology companies and deepening ties with Taiwan, a self-governing island claimed by Beijing.
Mr. Trump is considered the world's leading negotiator. But Chinese officials have told me privately that they expect to have difficulty negotiating with his superiors because they see Mr. Trump as a repeat. They also worry that tensions over Taiwan could worsen if it is surrounded by hawkish advisers.
Chinese officials see a potential escalation if Mr. Trump withdrawing the United States from its position as world leader. That would give China an opportunity to fill the void, move many countries to China's side, economically and diplomatically, and weaken the US alliances that hold China back.
However, those changes could take years to materialize, and the worry then is that another Trump name could sow global instability that China's economy can't afford.
India
India is better placed than most major countries in Trump's second term. It is a counterweight to China that can help diversify global supply chains. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also shared a closeness with Mr Trump during his first term.
But the chronic unpredictability of Mr. Trump may challenge the Indian official's notorious preference for slow and steady travel. And in his campaign, he pointed out India's high tariffs on American goods, saying he would roll them back.
Immigration is another point of contention. Mr. Trump, during his first term, imposed restrictions on visas used by many Indians in the United States, who also make up the third largest number of undocumented immigrants in the United States. The deportation of Mr. Trump may have a big impact on the relationship.
Africa
In a fast-changing and small continent, millions will be watching to see if Mr.
During his first term, his relationship with the continent changed from disdain to neglect – he never visited the continent once. Now, African governments are expected to adopt an approach to trade in Africa that promotes the interests of American businesses.
He will face at least one major decision affecting the continent: There is a law set to expire in 2025 that provides duty-free access to the US market in many African countries. That law would be the target if Mr. Trump is pushing hard on taxes. His administration will also fight China for resources from the continent, especially rare minerals needed for electric cars and wind turbines.
Trump's presidency could reduce the influence of the US military in Africa, as civil wars and violent extremism spread across the continent. Russia has become a favorite security partner for many African governments, and US troops have been withdrawn from countries such as Niger and Chad.
Israel and Gaza
Although Israelis with many political backgrounds hope that Mr. Trump will win, his victory was quickly celebrated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his right-wing government.
The Israeli right hopes that Mr. Trump will support the return of Jewish settlers to Gaza, support tougher war measures against Iran, accept Israel's annexation of the West Bank, and ignore Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's efforts to undermine Israel's power. the courts.
“This is a great victory!” Mr Netanyahu said in a statement. “Congratulations on the biggest comeback in history!”
However, Mr. Trump is unpredictable, and has indicated in recent months that his priorities may not align with Israel's. Last month, he appeared reluctant to change the regime in Iran, which is the dream of Israeli politicians. And in March, he expressed dismay at some of the images of carnage from Gaza, telling Israeli journalists: “You are losing a lot of support, you have to finish, you have to do the job.”
Palestinian leaders in the West Bank are doing everything they can to get Mr. Hamas spokesman Basem Naim issued a muted statement, calling the election “a private matter for the American people.”
Mexico
Mexico is preparing for a second Trump term that could be even more disruptive than the first.
The president-elect has promised a number of policies that could have far-reaching consequences: using the US military against Mexican drug cartels and sending thousands of troops to the border; imposing heavy taxes on allies and adversaries alike; and implementing the largest deportation campaign in American history, which would have caused the greatest social and economic collapse in Mexico.
The President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, said that she will stop recognizing the winner of the election until all the votes are counted. He also urged people to calm down. “There is no reason to worry,” he told the business community and Mexicans at home and in the United States on Wednesday. But the stakes are certainly high: Mexico recently surpassed China to become the largest source of imports for the United States.
Russia and Ukraine
It is clear that Mr Trump's victory will have a major impact on Russia's war in Ukraine. But no one in Moscow or Kyiv knows exactly what will happen.
In Russia, there is hope that Mr. Trump will follow through on his longstanding promises to end the war quickly. His running mate, JD Vance, has outlined a peace deal similar to what analysts believe the Kremlin wants: a deal that keeps Russia in control of the territory it has seized, and a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO.
But the Kremlin seems to have doubts that Mr. Trump would actually push through the deal, largely because of his record: There was jubilation in Moscow when Mr. Trump won in 2016, but in the following four years, US sanctions against Russia increased. , and Mr. Trump sent anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine.
Ukraine will have to agree to the deal – although it can do so, under pressure, if the United States cuts military aid. And while there are signs of growing public interest in the settlement, President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly refused to give up Ukraine's territory or the prospect of NATO membership. On Wednesday, he quickly clarified that he would like to have Mr. Trump for his part, as one of the first world leaders to congratulate Mr.
The weather
The victory of Mr. Trump is reversing the global effort to control dangerous levels of warming.
The United States is the biggest polluter in history, so it is very important whether it reduces climate pollution. The record of Mr. Trump shows that he does not want to do that.
He is likely to, in turn, change many US climate laws. He said he would also withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. And he has championed more oil and gas drilling, where the United States is already the world's largest producer. New drilling licenses could block greenhouse gas emissions that are heating the planet for decades, making the worst climate disasters more likely.
But the world has changed since his first time. Renewable energy is cheaper than ever, and a large part of the supply chain is controlled by China. The Biden administration's landmark climate legislation, the Anti-Inflation Act, has drawn new manufacturing to America's shores. It may be difficult for Mr. Trump dismantled it completely.
Europe and NATO
The victory of Mr. Trump does not scare the United States' supporters in Europe, but it will test their ability to maintain unity, build their military and protect their economic interests if Mr. .
“How do we deal with the United States, which we see as a rival and a nuisance rather than a friend we can work with?” said Georgina Wright, deputy director of International Studies at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. “It should unite Europe, but that doesn't mean Europe will unite.”
Some European countries have tried to prepare for Trump's victory. But with both French and German governments weak internally, it would be difficult to build a strong European response.
The unpredictability of Mr. Trump – empowered by Republican lawmakers – worries European allies. But they expect Mr. Trump has maintained some of his positions: skepticism about international alliances, admiration for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and dislike for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, said François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst.
Mr. Trump has succeeded in demanding more military spending from other NATO members, Mr. Heisbourg. But Article 5 of the alliance, which binds members to collective self-defense, “should not be a protectionist racket,” he said.
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