Tthe world will have just over two months to prepare for Donald Trump's return to the White House, and any new foreign policy that comes with it. His first presidential term—defined by trade wars, isolationism, and deep skepticism about the EU and NATO—may seem to offer a preview of what might come in the second. But those close to the President-elect say the only thing the world has to rely on is the wavering of his signs.
“Prediction is a terrible thing,” Richard Grenell, Trump's former intelligence director who will play a key role in the next administration, recently told a newspaper. Financial Times. “Yes, on the other hand [America’s enemies] you want to be predictable. Trump is unpredictable and we Americans love it. “
Still, experts are finding clues to what Trump's next presidency might say about Gaza, Ukraine, Europe, and beyond.
In the Middle East, New Uncertainties
Of all the foreign policy issues that have come up in this US election cycle, perhaps the most urgent is Israel's ongoing war against Iran-backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon, where more than 43,000 Palestinians and 3,000 Lebanese have been killed under bombardment in Israel. Trump told TIME in April that if he had stayed in office in 2020, the wars “wouldn't have happened.” Throughout the 2024 campaign, he promised to end violence and restore peace in the region, without giving details. At the same time, he suggested that Israel should be allowed to “finish the occupation” in Gaza while reportedly urging the Netanyahu government to end the war when he returned to the White House.
What it indicates—a push for a ceasefire, or a tacit approval of Israel to continue its provocations—is open to interpretation, but observers are guided by Trump's lackluster support for Israel in his first term. In moving the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognizing the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights as part of Israel, he took steps that the previous President, Republican or Democrat, had come close to.
What may be more important to Trump is that the wars are “not in the news,” said Matt Duss, senior vice president of the Center for International Policy and former senior foreign policy adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders, “because anything that disturbs. since Trump's highlighting is what he doesn't like. “
“In the end, as we saw in his first term, he will just take out a lot from his advisers, the same people [David] Friedman again [Jared] Kushner, and we all know what their views are,” Duss added, referring to Trump's former ambassador to Israel and his son-in-law and former adviser, both of whom have called for the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and the annexation of the Israeli-controlled West Bank.
In Israel, expectations for Trump – who was very popular among Israelis – are mixed. “On the right, there is a view that with Trump, Israel will have a free hand in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank, and Iran should be more careful,” said Nimrod Novik, a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum. and former senior adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres. “On the left, there are different expectations [President Joe] Biden, Trump will not let Netanyahu push him, which could present Netanyahu with the first difficult dilemma of choosing between standing up to his coalition partners or an unpredictable Trump. “
When it comes to Iran, Trump may be less willing to pressure Israel. His first term was defined by the Islamic Republic's crackdown. Trump not only pulled out of the agreement that had sidelined their nuclear program, he imposed new sanctions; he also ordered the killing of the most famous person in Iran, General Qasem Soleimani. Iran has vowed, and is apparently plotting to avenge that death by assassinating Trump. But the wealthy Sunni states of the Gulf, which also view Iran as a threat, may not be belligerent.
“Trump and his national security team may struggle to find the same level of support in the region that they had four years ago,” wrote Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former deputy director of national intelligence. the Near East at the US National Intelligence Council. He notes that many of the wealthy Gulf states who might have welcomed such efforts now — with a cycle of direct attacks between Israel and Iran threatening to spiral into regional chaos — want to ease tensions with Tehran.
Trump's first-term foreign policy signature is likely to be the Abraham Accords, a set of agreements that mend relations between Israel and some of its Arab neighbors. The war in Gaza is jeopardizing efforts to expand — especially in Saudi Arabia, which was thought to be on the verge of reaching a general agreement with Israel before Hamas's Oct. 7 which killed 1,200 people in the country. The Saudis have confirmed that no such agreement can be reached without a viable path to a Palestinian state.
At the start of his first term, Trump took that as an opportunity to show off his negotiating skills, calling it “the last deal.” But he appears to have cooled on the idea of a Palestinian state, which is opposed by advisers like Friedman. “There was a time when I thought two districts could work,” Trump told TIME in April. “Now I think the two regions will be very difficult.”
Ukraine, Putin's question
Just as Trump has pledged to resolve the conflicts in the Middle East, he has also indicated that he will end the more than two-year war between Russia and Ukraine – something he says can be achieved gradually. day. Both he and his Vice President-elect, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, expressed opposition to further US military aid to Ukraine and suggested that Kyiv could be pressured into a deal with Moscow, perhaps at the expense of some Ukrainian territories.
While Ukraine is nervous about what Trump's second name might mean, its government has also expressed hope for changes the Trump administration could bring—in particular, a move away from the cautious approach of the Biden administration, which has often resisted Kyiv's requests. for more air defense and long-range missiles for fear of increased conflict. Among those hopeful is former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who wrote in his congratulatory column that Trump's victory was related to his record of “taking strong and decisive action,” adding: “I have no doubt that is what he will now do at home again.” abroad, whether in the Middle East or Ukraine.” Trump's choices for top administration positions may provide clarity.
“I appreciate President Trump's commitment to a 'peace by force' approach to world affairs,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a congratulatory X post on Wednesday. “This is a system that can only bring peace to Ukraine.”
Read more: Ukraine's plan to survive Trump
Trump has long touted his “excellent relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he has reportedly spoken seven times since leaving the White House. But the Kremlin coolly greeted his victory, noting that the US “remains an unfriendly country directly and indirectly involved in our empire's war.”
For NATO, More Pressure to Spend
Among the biggest foreign policy bugs of Trump's first term was NATO and whether its members are contributing their fair share to the military alliance. During the campaign, Trump made it clear that – although Russia's attack on Ukraine renewed the alliance – he did not abandon the issue, saying that, despite the stated obligations of the agreement, he would not commit to protecting countries that were not there. 'to meet the commitment to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defence. While Vance recently assured that the Trump administration “will honor our NATO commitments,” he emphasized that NATO is “not just a social client. It has to be a real alliance.”
Only 23 members, or about two-thirds, of the coalition's members are expected to meet the 2% rate this year. But in a statement congratulating Trump, new NATO chief Mark Rutte said defense spending is “on track across the Alliance,” perhaps indicating that the target could be set even higher in the future, perhaps 2.5% or 3%. Other members, among them leading states Poland, Latvia, and Estonia, are already surpassing them.
In any case, Trump's return to the White House did nothing to quell the debate among European leaders about the continent's independence and the extent of its reliance on an increasingly unreliable Washington. “Some say that the future of Europe depends on the American election, but it depends on us,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk during the US vote. “Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.”
China, Tariffs, and a Possible Trade War
Trump campaigned on a pledge to impose tariffs of up to 60% on all Chinese imports, in what is expected to escalate a trade war with Beijing and likely prompt retaliation against US businesses. (He also imposes a global tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports.) While supporters of the plan argue that it will boost American manufacturing, some analysts warn that because the tariffs will be passed on to consumers, it could cost US families as much as $2,600 per year.
Observers don't really expect the president-elect to want to confront China on other vexed issues, such as the US's continued support for Taiwan. In keeping with his traditional trade-off approach to politics, Trump has previously registered skepticism about the benefits of supporting Taiwan, suggesting that the self-governing island must pay the US for protection.
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