Raja'a is a 63-year-old widow displaced from southern Lebanon who prayed for an end to the devastating war between the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah and Israel. So far, the conflict has killed thousands and caused more than one million Lebanese to flee their homes. As the winter months began in the mountains of Lebanon Raja'a, whose name means hope, grew desperate. His calls have increased. “Firas my love, do you think peace is near? I'm cold.”
The US-brokered agreement signed by Lebanon and Israel's war cabinet supports it today, far from any kind of “divine victory” Hezbollah declared after its last major war with Israel in 2006. The leaked draft shows that the group will be required to withdraw its heavy weapons from southern Lebanon, which is a key requirement for Israel. The deal also created a US-led monitoring mechanism to ensure that withdrawal, and to prevent Iran from replenishing the group's historically formidable arsenal.
But will US surveillance and guarantees bring lasting stability to this volatile Lebanon-Israel border? Or will it prove to be just another break between wars as Hezbollah regroups with its leadership cut off?
Read more: The Myth of Hezbollah Debunked
Israel hesitates. The provision that ended the war in July 2006, UN Security Council Resolution 1701, was not implemented. Behind it, Hezbollah grew stronger as Iran supplied it with missiles and precision-guided munitions while UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese Armed Forces looked the other way.
To address these concerns, the US has reportedly given Israel a side letter to ensure that it agrees to continued surveillance of flights over Lebanon, as well as Tel Aviv's right to strike against emerging threats if surveillance and law enforcement fail. Senior Israeli officials told their American counterparts privately, “We will do less if this machine does more, but we will have to do more if it ends up doing less.”
But the assurances of Washington and the cautious approach led by the US can do much without a willing and capable partner in Beirut, the Lebanese government that is ready to work with the international community to expand the sovereignty of the state, enforce border controls, and prevent what remains. with the military power of Hezbollah.
The Lebanese army is a highly respected institution in a diverse and sectarian country. But it will not be a necessary partner without political directives from an independent President. Even if the president's two-year tenure in Lebanon comes to an end, the country will not be able to cooperate with international donors to undertake a massive reconstruction project without a transitional government—one that no longer allows Hezbollah to expose Iranian weapons to the regime. rubric of resistance to Israel.
Amos Hochstein, the friendly American envoy leading the ceasefire talks, has largely avoided Lebanon's internal affairs and the question of the next day. Much is needed, not only to restart the stalled political process in Beirut, but also to prevent Lebanon from returning to civil strife, as happened after the last major Hezbollah-Israel war. In 2008, the militant group launched a military offensive against the Lebanese government that tried to reduce its power.
Lebanon is a country that will need effective governance to achieve any sustainable progress. Before Washington is completely consumed by the inauguration of Donald Trump in January, Hochstein would do well to ask for the help of France and Saudi Arabia, US allies who have been very influential in Lebanon and have a long history of mediating between conflicts. Lebanese groups.
France watched sadly from the sidelines as Hochstein charged American leadership with the cost of negotiating with France on its former defense. But in the coming days, as the guns finally fall silent, Hochstein should support Paris and encourage it to resume talks with Lebanon's various factions to end years of political rift that has crippled state institutions and left the economy fragile.
The Saudis, who hosted and facilitated the negotiations that ended Lebanon's 15-year civil war in 1990, were also not alone, talking about the role in Lebanon of focusing on their country's unprecedented economic and social transformation. But they too are now eager to step up, realizing that progress on their vision of regional integration and normalization with Israel will depend on a long-term disarmament in Lebanon and Gaza.
Both the Saudis and the French maintain strong, if still adversarial, relations with Iran. This will be important for the politics surrounding the waning, but significant Iranian famine in Lebanon and the region.
When French President Emmanuel Macron visited Saudi Arabia on a historic visit in early December, he should propose a national post-war dialogue of Lebanese leaders under American, French, and Saudi sponsorship to restart the stalled politics of Beirut, and clarify. situations of billions of dollars needed to rebuild. And with Trump returning to office next year, appointing a cross-party successor to Hochstein should be a foreign policy priority.
The Italian political philosopher Antonio Gramsci famously warned that a variety of maladies arise from the interregnum that occurs when the old dies and the new is not yet born. We must be aware of what may follow the long-awaited Israel-Lebanon if Beirut is neglected.
If millions like Raja'a, a second mother to me, return to the destroyed villages with no hope of reconstruction and little hope of a dignified life, Hochstein's suspension will not last long.
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