Xi's RSVP is a trophy for Trump, but an invitation to the inauguration is still a big deal

Consider the scene, at noon on January 20, west of the US Capitol.

As Donald Trump vowed to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution in the same place where his supporters rebelled four years ago, a rare VIP guest watched, covering former presidents, military brass and members of Congress.

Bundled up to stave off the winter chill is Xi Jinping, the hardline leader of China – a country that almost everyone in the front ranks sees as an imminent threat to US superpower dominance as the 21st century's cold war accelerates.

It's a perfect picture, because even before sources on Thursday confirmed that Xi wouldn't be there, it was clear that it wasn't going to happen, despite Trump's surprise invitation to the leader of the Chinese Communist Party for a second inauguration that he hopes will shock the world. statement.

Having Xi fly around the world would be a major coup for the president-elect — a fact that would make it politically impossible for the Chinese leader. Such a visit would put the Chinese president in a position to honor Trump and American power – which would conflict with his view of China taking its rightful role as the world's dominant power. At the inauguration, Xi will be forced to sit and listen to Trump without any control over what the new president can say while not having the right to reply. Xi's presence will also be seen as endorsing a democratic transfer of power – a boon for an autocrat in a one-party state that is thought to be harsh.

Still, even without a positive response, Trump's invitation to Xi marks an important development that shines a light on the president's confidence and ambition as he exercises power ahead of his second term. The CNN team covering Trump reported that he was also asking other world leaders if they wanted to come to the inauguration – during a break in the meeting.

This is a reminder of Trump's penchant for foreign policy action and his willingness to bend diplomatic codes in his own unpredictable way. Xi's invitation also shows that Trump believes that the power of his personality alone can be a key factor in building diplomatic success. He is far from a president who would follow this path – which rarely works as hostile US adversaries make decisions based on national interests rather than vibes.

The president-elect's invitation to Xi is particularly interesting because he has spent the past few weeks assembling China's most aggressive foreign policy team, including his choice for secretary of state, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and national security adviser. , Florida attorney Mike Waltz, who sees China as a major threat to the United States, economically, on the high seas and even in space.

“This is a very interesting move by Trump that fits well with his trend of not being confident. I don't think anyone expected this,” said Lily McElwee, deputy director and fellow in the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). McElwee said that this invitation must be seen through the sticks and carrots used by the president-elect as he prepares to take on the most critical relationship in the world. “This is the cheapest carrot. It's a symbolic carrot – it's disrupting the tone of the relationship a little bit in a way that US interests can't.”

Trump's contact with Xi comes as tensions between the US and China are expected to worsen in the next administration when officials are determined to build on the already tough line adopted by the Biden administration, which was built on the strictness of the policy during the first term of Trump. .

The rivals have been at loggerheads over Taiwan, a democratic island that China claims as part of its territory, and whether or not the United States could defend it if Xi ordered an attack. China is increasing its cooperation with other US adversaries in an informal axis against the West alongside Russia, North Korea and Iran. The air and naval forces of the two largest Pacific powers have often come dangerously close to conflict in the South and East China seas. And lawmakers in both parties accuse China of stealing US economic and military secrets and failing to live up to international law and trade rules.

With Trump already threatening to impose tariffs on China, his attempt to woo Xi in Washington looks like a huge contradiction. And it begs the next question as foreign governments grapple with how to treat the new US president: Should US allies and adversaries take his bullish tone and erratic policy swings seriously? Is America's true path reflected in its hard-line officials and policies or is it more accurately represented by the actions of a nomadic president-elect, who expresses a penchant for agreements and sitting at the negotiating table with strong world leaders?

Trump's first major step in China relations

Trump's latest gamble may sound chaotic — but that doesn't mean it won't work.

While Trump's critics often decry his uncertainty, his off-the-cuff moves could rebuke his rivals and open up potential gains for the US. For example, any success he has in removing Xi from Iran, Russia and North Korea would be a major foreign policy success despite US tensions with China.

But at the same time, it's worth asking whether the fire and fury of his first-term foreign policy is yielding strong results.

Trump's views on China are particularly confusing – as he seems to believe that Beijing's mercantilist policies are a direct threat to the US and that it has been alienating America for decades. But he still wants to be friends with Xi. On the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly emphasized that Xi was tough and smart and that they were friends — apparently believing that their warmth meant the Chinese leader would share a similar view of him.

Trump expressed this contradiction in one sentence in an interview with Jim Cramer on CNBC on Thursday. “We've been talking and talking with President Xi, other things and others, other world leaders, and I think we're going to do very well all around,” Trump said. But he added: “We have been abused as a country. We have been badly abused from an economic point of view.”

Trump's habit of undermining his administration's hard-line policy has been seen repeatedly in his first term, especially with key figures such as Xi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and North Korea's Kim Jong Un. Sometimes it seemed like he was taking positions just because everyone told him not to.

One of Trump's national security advisers, HR McMaster, noted in his book “At War with Ourselves” that this was widely publicized with Putin. “Like his predecessors George W. Bush and Barack Obama, Trump was overconfident in his ability to improve relations with dictators in the Kremlin,” McMaster wrote. “Trump, who describes himself as a 'professional salesman,' believes that he can build a personal relationship with Putin. Trump's tendency to oppose the dynamic adds to his determination. The fact that many foreign policy experts in Washington advocate a hard way in the Kremlin seems to be driving the president in a different direction.”

Such a conflict could encourage Trump to extend his first olive branch to Xi. And the president-elect could also envision a new trade deal with Beijing even if the original bilateral deal was a mistake. The Phase One trade deal that he concluded in late 2019 and hailed as “historic” did not materialize. When Trump lashed out at Xi months later over the Covid-19 pandemic that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, it was not clear that Xi intended to take full advantage of what Trump said was a major economic overhaul and massive US imports. agriculture, energy and manufactured goods. There is no evidence Xi has changed his mind.

Trump's tax strategy is also being questioned because no one knows if a president who is reluctant to damage his base is ready to pay the political price this approach will entail. Despite his insistence that the tariffs will end up costing Beijing billions, the higher import prices will be passed on by American retailers to consumers — including voters who see Trump as the best hope for lowering grocery prices.

Another question: Does Trump see tariffs as a negotiating ploy or an actual act of economic warfare? Many analysts think that his threats against allies such as Canada or the European Union are only intended to improve his negotiating position. But that is against China in Washington that trade wars with Beijing can last long and end on their own.

“With China, we still have a question mark about whether the tariff threats are intended to negotiate a deal, or are they intended to be some sort of US-Chinese economic withdrawal?” McElwee said.

Beijing seems to be taking Trump seriously. In the weeks since Trump's election, tools of revenge have been studied. On Wednesday, it announced an antitrust investigation against US-based chipmaker Nvidia. On the other side of the tech war, China banned the export of several rare minerals to the United States. And on Thursday, it pledged to increase the budget deficit, borrow more money and loosen monetary policy to protect economic growth as a hedge against fresh tensions with Trump.

This shows that a trade war could be disastrous for China and America. While the tariffs could send prices higher in the US, they could freeze profits and exacerbate some of China's major economic weaknesses, including industrial overcapacity and weak domestic demand.

Therefore, Trump's unorthodox approach may begin to focus on Beijing.

Seen from this perspective, Trump's opening invitation looks like the opening chess move in a pan-Pacific epic game that will help define his second term.

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