Can anybody cease the Mets? That’s not a query I anticipated to be asking this yr, except it was “Can anybody cease the Mets from signing marquee free brokers?” or “Can anybody cease the Mets from imploding in probably the most Mets-y method possible?” However because the Nationwide League Division Sequence begins, the Mets are on a kind of team-of-destiny runs that seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There’s no deficit they will’t overcome, no lead they will’t squander after which retake within the subsequent inning. They’re upping the diploma of issue considerably beginning Saturday, although: The Phillies have been among the finest groups in baseball all yr, and so they’re rested and prepared for what guarantees to be an thrilling collection.
A story of the tape – Francisco Lindor is nice at x, Bryce Harper is nice at y, Zack Wheeler and Kodai Senga will sq. off in Sport 1, so on and so forth – doesn’t really feel like the best technique to describe this collection. As a substitute, I’m going to concentrate on how every workforce tries to win, and the way these plans are almost definitely to go awry.
The Mets have thrived offensively this yr with a easy blueprint: energy on the high of the lineup and Jose Iglesias by some means doing all the things else. Lindor is so good that he’s virtually an offense unto himself: He led the Mets in runs (107), RBI (91), steals (29), on-base proportion (.344), slugging proportion (.500), and just about all the things else you’ll be able to think about, apart from dwelling runs (33). In that class, he completed one off the workforce lead behind Pete Alonso. Alonso had a down yr in 2024, however he’s excellent on the ability the Mets most want from him: clobbering homers to drive in Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and typically Iglesias. Mark Vientos capabilities as a second Alonso; he’s there to hit homers or advance runners with situational hitting, however he’s recent out of situational hitting.
This plan has labored fairly properly all yr, and it’s labored notably properly within the string of playoff and playoff-like video games they’ve received this week. The highest 5 hitters mixed to drive in all of the runs in Monday’s playoff-clinching win towards the Braves. Iglesias and Vientos keyed Tuesday’s victory over the Brewers. A 3-run Alonso homer was all of the scoring they wanted to ship Milwaukee dwelling Thursday night time. It’s hardly an unsustainable plan; the Mets have been seventh in wRC+ (109) and likewise runs scored (768) this yr, near-doppelgängers for the Phillies.
What might go incorrect with New York’s offense? It’s fairly straightforward to grasp. If Lindor, Alonso, and Vientos aren’t supplying the facility, runs are arduous to return by. Even with Iglesias handing over a career-best season as a slap-hitting spark plug, the Mets play station to station. They’re one of many worst baserunning groups within the majors. Lindor is the largest exception to this rule, although Starling Marte, Tyrone Taylor, and Nimmo are additionally keen to take an additional base right here and there. For probably the most half, runs come both from the mixed excellence of the workforce’s finest hitters or from stringing collectively a ton of singles to drive dwelling among the plodders.
Shutting down the Mets would possibly sound easy – preserve their good hitters off the board – nevertheless it’s not straightforward. Alonso and Vientos crush fastballs. Nimmo and Lindor excel towards chase-seeking secondaries. Iglesias will swing at something and ceaselessly make contact – and this yr, he’s turning most of that contact into flared singles. One-trick pony pitchers who lean on one or the opposite of a nasty slider or big fastball will run into bother towards the Mets.
Fortunately for the Phillies, that doesn’t describe their starters in any respect. Wheeler is a five-trick pony, at minimal: He throws six pitches, and solely his split-change is under common. He additionally has nice command and pitches deep into video games. I imply, clearly he does: He’s one of many best possible pitchers in baseball, and he has been because the day he went to Philadelphia. Aaron Nola is an ready second banana; he’ll have his best benefit towards Alonso and Vientos due to a hammer curveball.
Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez may have their work lower out for them on this collection – lefty sinkerballers don’t match up properly towards the Mets’ righty energy bats. Nonetheless, they’re wonderful choices as no. 3 and 4 starters. The third and fourth video games of the collection are sandwiched by journey days, and Wheeler and Nola typically give the bullpen a break on their begins. That units the Phillies as much as go bullpen-heavy when their lefties are on the mound and assault the highest of the Mets order with a succession of nice relievers.
The Philadelphia bullpen was among the finest within the majors all yr, a lot in order that it’s nonetheless a high unit regardless of buying and selling away a number of contributing relievers on the deadline. That power will likely be blunted considerably towards the Mets, although; New York completely crushed lefty pitching this yr, and the Phillies have three standout southpaw relievers. The perfect spot to deploy a lefty might be towards the Lindor-Vientos/Iglesias-Nimmo portion of the order, however that’s not even excellent.
Nonetheless, the Phillies are deep. Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, and even José Ruiz carry strikeout stuff from the best aspect. If I have been managing the Phillies, I’d preserve rotating matchups to stop Vientos and Alonso from seeing any of those arms too typically. I’d combine in among the good lefties towards them in low-leverage spots, and possibly even organize for a Taijuan Walker sighting.
Controlling the highest half of the lineup is numerous the problem when going through the Mets, and the Phillies definitely have the arms to do it. However baseball being what it’s, that’s no assure of success. Lindor, Nimmo, and Alonso have hit the largest homers of the yr for the Mets, all three this week. They got here off of righty relievers with ERAs of three.67, 1.98, and 1.25, respectively. A technique this collection might go: Philadelphia sends its finest pitchers on the Mets, and the Mets come out victorious.
After all, the Phillies get to bat too. In some methods, they’re constructed equally to their rivals; the highest of their order options two energy threats and a multi-talented shortstop, and the remainder of the hitters aren’t almost nearly as good. Of their case, although, the shortstop looks like a reasonably clear third banana as an alternative of the whole offensive id of the workforce. Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the Phillies offense in some ways. They’ve related skillsets and have produced related worth this yr. You’ll wrestle to make them chase. They’ll swing out of their footwear attempting to hit homers. They could strike out consequently – however they have an inclination to take action on their very own phrases, taking big hacks at pitches that they’ll obliterate in the event that they make contact.
Trea Turner bats between them and does a little bit little bit of all the things. I’m anticipating him to amp up the baserunning aggression in October; this was by far the worst baserunning yr of his profession, however the playoffs appear to be a superb time to eschew good long-term well being administration and put your foot on the gasoline pedal. Even when he isn’t stealing bases and making aggressive developments, although, he’s an excellent hitter. He’ll get to face a ton of southpaws due to his lineup place between two lefty sluggers, and he’s been 10% higher with the platoon benefit over his prolonged profession.
Like its counterpart in New York, the Philly lineup falls off after its high guys. Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm bat fourth and fifth in some order most days, and at occasions they’ve been nice: Castellanos has a 132 wRC+ within the second half of the season, and Bohm made the All-Star workforce due to a scorching first half. However that sizzling streak from Castellanos introduced his profession mark with the Phillies as much as a 103 wRC+, and 105 for the 2024 season. In the meantime, Bohm cooled off arduous within the second half (90 wRC+).
I feel the important thing to the Mets offense is how a lot the highest guys can do harm towards excellent opposition. I feel that the important thing to the Phillies lineup, then again, is whether or not the underside half could make life simpler for Harper and associates. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh appear to be platoon bats at this level of their careers. Johan Rojas and Edmundo Sosa are the opposite half of these platoons, however they hardly strike worry into opposing pitchers. J.T. Realmuto is the wild card right here; he acquired higher because the yr went on, in stark distinction to what you’d count on from a 33-year-old catcher. If he’s extra MVP candidate than defensive specialist who can hit a little bit, the lineup will look deeper and scarier for Mets pitchers. If he and Castellanos flip into pumpkins, the workforce may be counting on Wheeler and Nola to win numerous 2-1 video games.
Talking of 2-1 duels, the Mets rotation strains up pretty properly towards the Phillies, although it merely doesn’t have the identical firepower as Philadelphia does in its rotation. Senga will get the beginning in Sport 1, however with solely 19 2/3 innings pitched throughout all ranges this yr due to a number of accidents, he’s most likely not going to pitch deep into the sport. Tylor Megill would’ve been subsequent in line to attract that begin, so he’ll presumably be readily available as an extended reliever if mandatory. Senga’s look may very well be extraordinarily quick; the final time he threw a number of aggressive innings got here in the midst of July in a minor league sport, and even that look lasted solely three innings.
Luis Severino was Senga’s substitute atop the rotation this yr; relying on how Senga appears in Sport 1, both he or Severino would presumably draw a Sport 5 project. Because of the best way the schedule strains up, Severino could be on common relaxation for that one even after he pitches Sport 2, a boon to the Mets after they performed 5 video games in 4 days this week. The Senga/Megill sport is the hardest one to determine; I feel that it will likely be a de facto bullpen sport except Senga appears dominant and covers at the least a couple of innings, which is principally unknowable at this level.
When the collection shifts again to New York, the Mets will carry out their lefties: Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana. Manaea was Severino’s equal this yr, and I feel I’d take him over Severino if I had to decide on certainly one of them for one sport solely, however his relaxation schedule received’t permit him to go twice within the collection. Quintana continues to be the identical pitcher – he’s artful and might nonetheless spin a pleasant curveball, however his nice expertise is in bulk innings, not dominance. If he can get the Phillies chasing within the early going, he would possibly put up a begin to rival his six scoreless innings towards the Brewers in Sport 3 of the Wild Card Sequence. If he begins falling behind within the rely, it may be an extended night time for the Mets, and a brief one for him.
I count on the Mets to be extraordinarily cautious about letting Schwarber and Harper see the identical pitcher for a 3rd time. I’d be keen to offer New York’s two lefty starters an opportunity the third time by means of, however I wouldn’t let Megill strive it if the sport is shut, and I wouldn’t really feel nice about Senga’s (assuming he may even face 18+ batters) or Severino’s probabilities. That places the workforce in a tough spot, as a result of it doesn’t have many efficient lefty relievers. David Peterson is the best choice, however he’s a swingman, not a high-leverage arm. Danny Younger is the one different lefty on the squad, and whereas he’s a basic sinker/slider LOOGY, I wouldn’t be tripping throughout myself to get him into the sport towards two top-tier sluggers.
In a method, although, that lack of lefties may very well be releasing. Platoon matchups aren’t as vital as simply utilizing good pitchers, and if the Mets aren’t forcing themselves to play the handedness sport, they will flip their finest relievers unfastened towards the highest of the lineup and work all the things else out later. Edwin Díaz is snug coming into video games earlier than the ninth inning and likewise snug getting greater than three outs; I’d take him over Peterson and Younger any day. Reed Garrett, José Buttó, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek might all draw lefty-slugger obligation as properly. The important thing will likely be various up the appears whereas deploying good relievers in good spots, which is simpler stated than executed. Carlos Mendoza has executed a superb job of it to date, although. He’ll get an opportunity to sink or swim on an even bigger stage beginning Saturday.
Due to the construction of this text, it most likely looks like I feel the collection is a toss-up. I don’t; the lineups may be related, however the rotations aren’t. I’d name the groups evenly matched in Video games 3 and 4, however Wheeler is miles higher than anybody on the Mets workers. That’s two video games the place the Phillies may have a giant benefit within the early innings. Nola isn’t any slouch both. ZiPS provides the Phillies an enormous 66% likelihood of advancing due to their edge in beginning pitching. Playing markets are almost as bullish; they’ve the Phillies round 65% to win the collection. Our easy projection-based mannequin provides them a 64% likelihood; PECOTA has it 60/40. The Phillies are positively the higher workforce.
A much less intrepid preview author would possibly depart it at that. I’ll exit on a limb, although, and say that I feel these odds are too low on the Mets. They aren’t 50% to win this collection, clearly. The Phillies are better-rested and received the NL East by six video games. However the two groups had the identical BaseRuns document. The Mets didn’t simply get sizzling this week; they’ve the most effective document in baseball since June 1. They’ve outscored the Phillies over that stretch and allowed fewer runs. They have been actually abysmal within the early going this yr, and full-season stats and projections do a greater job of predicting playoff success than arbitrary-endpoint streaks, however this isn’t some scrappy underdog squad. The Mets are legit and fairly able to going toe-to-toe with anybody on this juggernaut-light yr.
So my prediction? Mets in 4. I’m going towards what the numbers say, and I don’t assume I’m 50% prone to be proper. However I do assume that the broader baseball public is simply too assured in Philly’s probabilities, and I like going towards the grain. So there you’ve it. In a matchup the place the groups are extra alike than they’re completely different, small edges might decide the collection. Gimme “OMG” remixes with Pitbull over a will-they-won’t-they relationship with “Dancing On My Personal,” notably in the event that they aren’t going with the unique Robyn model. And if I decide the Mets after which they get drubbed in three lopsided video games? Properly, what’s extra Mets-y than that? It’s a no-lose proposition.